Brooke/all, good news in all the gloom of today. Jeff
<<
Chip Equipment Industry May Be Taking the Silicon Out of Silicon Valley
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Story Filed: Tuesday, January 12, 1999 09:56 PM EST
PEBBLE BEACH, CALIF. (Jan. 12) BUSINESS WIRE -Jan. 12, 1999--The explosive growth in PCs and digital wireless devices is triggering a technology revolution in the materials and processes used to create advanced, low-power chips.
Silicon's preeminence as a basic building block may soon be challenged as companies seek more effective materials in the unrelenting demand for chips using less electric power.
Low-power consumption is critical for making batteries last longer in laptop computers, cellular telephones and other appliances.
This was among predictions made today during the second day of the 22nd annual forecasting meeting of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).
Some 300 industry executives and analysts are attending the three-day Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS).
"It's clear that the equipment and materials manufacturers are leading technology innovation that will enable new generations of computers, personal assistants, cellular technology and dozens of other applications," explained Stan Myers, SEMI's president.
According to Myers, squeezing more performance from lower power chips will require new materials and processes that will eventually eliminate silicon -- after 40 years of use -- as the basic building block of microprocessors.
He and others participating said that the industry might turn to other materials for the new devices that are on the drawing boards, including so-called appliances to access the Internet.
Meanwhile, the experts at SEMI/ISS also forecast an improved business picture during 1999 and 2000 for equipment and materials makers.
The Asian financial crisis, which has reduced chip demand, coupled with an oversupply of chips, has created a sharp drop in industry sales the past couple of years.
During the next 12-24 months all that will change, according to Myers, who said, "Our industry is cyclical with huge up and down swings. We are about to experience an upturn."
His positive outlooks were echoed by several respected industry analysts.
-- Dan Hutcheson, vice president of VLSI Research, was surprised by the 4th-quarter upturn in PC sales which in turn drove chip sales. He noted that an "underpowered little computer" (a direct reference to the popularity of Apple Computer's iMAC) "that looks like a bottle of mouthwash" took the PC industry by storm, and helped drive overall PC sales.
However, now that the computer industry "has become a fashion statement," it will be subjected to the ups and downs of the mass market -- not necessarily new developments in technology.
-- Clark J. Fuhs, vice president and director of Semiconductor Manufacturing Analysis Group at DataQuest, also forecast a better year in 1999 after a steep down year in 1998 in terms of semiconductor sales.
This is good news for the capital equipment industry. Fuhs said spending for capital equipment for wafer fab equipment will jump from $30.3 billion in 1998 to 72.9 billion in 2002.
He said some pessimism still persists, despite the recent upturn in semiconductor sales.
"Our view of the world was tempered by the fact that the industry had a very tough year in 1998," said Fuhs.
-- Dan Rose, president of Rose Associates, predicted improved market conditions for semiconductor materials in 1999 after a severe downturn in 1998.
He estimated worldwide sales for all consumption for all silicon was 4.2 billion inches, about one square mile in 1998. He expects that number to jump to 6.1 billion inches in 2002.
At Monday's sessions, James Bartlett, vice president, consumer solutions and strategy at IBM Corp., predicted that the future will not lead to super-powered all-in-one machines that deliver all the services we want from electronic gadgets.
Instead, we are likely to see a number of diverse devices that are as simple as the television to use and require virtually no technical knowledge to operate.
"Frustrated users want freedom from all the complexity in operating a computer or accessing services on the worldwide web," said Bartlett. "We're on the verge of pervasive computing -- where mondo PC function begins to break out into dozens of unique devices that can work in complementary fashion. We need the technology to disappear, just like the TV set when you're watching a great movie."
"You're mentally/visually transported into the movie, and -- for that period of time -- the glass/plastic (and electronic components) disappear," Bartlett continued. "We need this kind of breakthrough in future personal-information technology solutions."
Bartlett said that consumers would rather use a number of convenient devices, such as wireless phones, pagers, and personal digital assistants (PDAs) rather than have those functions combined into one single-use device that is expensive and difficult to use.
The semiconductor industry -- especially the equipment and materials companies -- will play a vital role in creating the technology necessary to make devices cheaper and easier to use with longer-life batteries, he said.
SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. Visit SEMI online at www.semi.org.
>
|
