To: Rande Is who wrote (1927 ) 1/13/1999 12:28:00 PM From: Kevin Shea Respond to of 57584
One man's look down the road. From my position in the road I see enough evidence to suggest that I be extremely careful. As I noted earlier, I use TA to gage sentiment vs market action. Traditional TA suggests that one watch for divergence between price and indicators. Those divergences signaled the Oct drop and are now developing anew. We are seeing very overbought conditions, with limited support in relative strength and momentum. These began to signal in November. The pattern looks a lot like that which occurred in May - June culminating with the internet "blow-off". Both Dow and NASDAQ comp showing diverge in advance/decline indicating weakness and thin participation - generally consider not healthy. Other indicators support non-confirmation. We have been cruising along with the top down, hair flowing in the breeze, laughing and frolicking. As I look down the road, I see dark cloud ahead - and I'm stopping to put the top back up. I may not be a weatherman, but I don't have to be a weatherman to see which way the wind blows. I'm generally conservative, so I'm opting to protect the returns that I've made since October. The crowd is in a frenzy, the Boston Globe front page article notes the spectacular gains in I-nets stocks, the January effect has played itself perfectly, prices going parabolic, earnings season ahead, Y2K fear still in the air, deflation (as noted by William)is present..... Getting time for me to look for conservative(value)picks. Am I contrarian? Would certainly appreciate supporting and alternative views. These are only my opinions and should not influence the decision making of others. Kevin