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Non-Tech : CYBERTRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Rhino who wrote (1708)	1/13/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: William W. Dwyer, Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3216

Mr. Rhino, I am delighted to hear of your initial success and enthusiasm and wish you well. But don't take it too seriously, not yet. My 1 -1/2 year experience has shown that even though one can have an occasional winning streak, the subsequent losing streak can and usually is much worse. Don't let a win or two make you think it's easy. I won quite a bit at the beginning, and it made me think daytrading was a goldmine. Easy money. Ha! I now see it more as a money pit. Perhaps you'll be around long enough to know what it feels like to see anything and everything go wrong, and always at the worst possible moment. There are just too many things that have to continually work well in order to win at daytrading. However, notwithstanding all the software, books, tapes, and seminars available, no one can consistently predict what the market will do on a given day, nor can they pick which stocks are going up or down on a given day. And most daytraders have expectations that last only minutes, not all day. Unrealistic? Maybe. Speculative? Of course. Even if they could pick winning trades, however, problems with the internet, telephone company or network connection, quote/data vendors, computer hardware and trading software vendors, problems with the exchanges and clearing firms, all these factors seem to make it virtually impossible to win over the long-term with daytrading. There are too many things to go wrong, and I've seen them all happen too many times. Investing over the long term with a "buy and hold" strategy has been proven very successful. Some forms of short term trading can work too, but carry increased risk and should, therefore, only be used with a small portion of one's portfolio. Daytrading is, imho, extremely speculative (gambling), and the brokers who encourage it will be the first to admit it. Some traders apparently get away with it for a while. But I am quit sure that many more do not. Have you ever wondered about all the people who are willing to sell you videotapes, seminars, newsletters, software, etc are doing THAT instead of daytrading themselves? Have you ever noticed how when all the systems are screwed up and acting weird and you lose a ton of money your broker still makes money? The markets are very, very big....and the only one who loses money and pays for everything are the traders, particularly the daytraders. It's like the people who walk into casinos and admire the beautiful surroundings. Do you think they realize they are the ones who pay for it? I find your comment "I am fortunate enough to be able to closely watch the market in my office...." quite interesting. If you think glancing at CNBC on a television in your office or maybe getting an occasional quote from your Schwab broker will help you daytrade, you're very wrong. There is a lot more to daytrading than that. The point is that even if you know how to trade, how to time your entries and exit points, there are too many technical things that can and will go wrong and these little "technical difficulties" will ultimately wipe you out. Of course, this is just my opinion. You'll have to find out for yourself. Good luck in your trading. But just don't get caught up in the idea that your great software and/or your ability to watch the market will make you successful over the long term. I have not met anyone who has been daytrading for very long, is particularly successful, making a living at it, and interested in continuing to do so. They usually end up giving seminars, selling newsletters, starting investment websites and chatrooms. I apologize to anyone who feels this post is unnecessarily negative or inaccurate or misleading. My remarks are only an expression of my opinion, and only meant to provoke some serious consideration to the notion that daytrading is fun and easy, to give some balance to the hype that seems to be taking over these days. I am sure there are some winners and I applaud their success. Bill