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Gold/Mining/Energy : Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AGORA who wrote (982)	1/13/1999 3:39:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2453

Exactly Agora! I don't for a minute think YF has any chance of going out of business. But I like a gamble where my downside is; 1) Highly unlikely 2) Even if the Downside does happen - losses are not catastrophic 3) Upside is likely 4) And lastly, not only is the upside likely but also potentially HUGE (for example, you cannot say this last point about the bank stocks!) I am fairly speculative risk-taker but if I can help it - I like to stack the odds in my favor. And unlike the Day Trader who sit in front of their terminal all day and are trying to make few bucks each day -- I have the luxury to sit and wait for few years for my strategic investments to either bomb or take-off. My parameters are as follows when I am trying to detect the next Dell, Microsoft, or Intel before they get too pricey; 1) Look for Small Cap (under billion in capitalization) 2) Were once a Street darling and had good following 3) Stock price has fairly high volatility (which means I can scoop them up when the sentiments are overly bearish - thanks to the momentum/daytraders) 4) Has LOTS of cash & no debt 5) Has Good Aggressive, Young Management 6) Is in a growth market (frozen dessert is not the highest growth market but it's not the most mature industry either as the consolidator/specialists have not emerged like in other retail sectors - i.e. CATAGORY KILLERS like Gap, Businss Depot, Amazon.Com, etc 7) Stock price is selling at near it's all-time low when the basic fundamentals of the company or the market has not changed Using this approach, I bought Psinet at $5.50 a year ago and is now trading at $29 US. I have also taken a strategic position on Operating Support Systems (OSS) companies like CrossKeys (CKY), OSII(Nasdaq), TCSI(Nasdaq). These are all small caps with tons of cash (relative to their size), good products, in a brand new - huge market of supporting the back-room, billing, network mgmt support systems of PTT's like Deutche Telecom, QWest, MCI/WorldCom, Viatel, Frontier, etc.etc. By the way - is Agora a person or an organization? You seem to have an above average understanding of the market.

To: AGORA who wrote (982)	1/13/1999 3:42:00 PM
From: Stocker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2453

Cheerleading and back slapping on this thread is getting a little thick. You guys say you don't mind both sides but it's clear you only really want to hear one side of the story. Fact is that YF is not trading up today, it's trading down - on news of another downgrade/concerns over future growth etc. I lost money on YF just like many have here, but I'm not blind to the fact that things MAY be fundamentally changed for the company. The market doesn't like the YF story right now and that's downright painful when there are stocks like NTL and ATY climbing higher on a panic day like this. It's all about opportunity cost. YF may get back above $5 soon but there is a lot of risk that it might languish around $4-4.50 for some time. Til things start to look up for the company, I'm sitting on my cash, and watching closely. As for management, they've said nothing because there's nothing good to say. Last I checked, no buyback. They'll want to save their cash for acquisitions. Also, with Brazil hurting and the rest of LatAm in the same pinch, there's one less place to try to grow revenues for YF. I'm in Venezuela and 80% of the people here can't afford meat, much less yogurt. Lots of YF's here but no people in the stores. Much the same I'm sure in parts of Asia. One positive I have seen in my research is that YF is doing a trial in 200 Kmart's in the US. Not sure how it's going but I find it strange that management hasn't played up on this a little. They really have dropped the ball recently. I still believe they can do a good job managing the company, but they've sure shown they can't manage their share price. Gotta do that too these days. Look at AMZN, MSFT, or ATY for good examples.