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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (11596)	1/14/1999 8:43:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Steve very many thanks for your messages. As you can see from the records of my posts I have been involved in the ongoing saga of Asia and been only watching Brazil until this moment. If you are long TBH you might watch carefully the trend here. YOu might look at the devaluations that plagued the Asian currencies in the last 18 months. Basicallly, the short strokes are that liquidity dried up in the banks in Asia. The currencies then cracked. You had 60% to 85% currency devaluations that followed. Brazil is very intersting in that the fiscal authorities of the world seem to have drawn a line in the sand here. There is heavey "newsmanagement" going on at this moment in our own domestic nes media about what the crisis really is. I found it very intersting your posting of this, "Francisco Gros, former president of Brazil's central bank and Latin American Chairman of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. discusses the Brazilian real and the resignation of Central Bank President Gustavo Franco. ''Anybody who put money into Brazil recently was made to look silly,'' Gros said in a telephone interview from his offices in New York. ''Gustavo (Franco) is a man of courage and is not afraid of a fight, and I don't believe he left because of a decision to devalue the real faster than expected but because of the objectives behind that decision were not what he believes in.'' ''Again, the government has underestimated the seriousness of the crisis and shown its disrespect for investors and the markets. They are sitting and whistling in the dark.'' ''Instead of floating the currency, they drew a new line in the sand. Nobody takes the new line seriously. The real has already hit the line.'' ''If they had floated the currency the real would have plunged even further against the dollar, but it would have come back. This isn't Mexico, Brazil has reserves, but now they are committed to spending them defending a line that no one takes seriously.'' My best to you and look forward to an interesting discussion here. Clark