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To: BGR who wrote (89102)	1/13/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

Apratim, an excellent post. I think our opinions are quite similar. TTFN, CTC

To: BGR who wrote (89102)	1/13/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Apratim- You raise some good points...let me provide a few counters.. BTW- I am not doing much short-term stuff here, perhaps that explains a lot of my (lack) of concern...I'm also not going to argue that returns since October 8th have not been ABSOLUTELY ABSURD for many on the thread, but..... (1) Earnings (especially for hardware companies) are coming in stronger than (apparently) anticipated.....Starting in November (MD- 17% overall PC growth for the next 3 years) Overall hardware demand forecasts have been raised in most cases for the next couple years...One could argue that this was not priced into the market (from the original Oct/Nov/Dec bounce).. (2) You obviously right about the liquidity (being the biggest factor)...but aren't we trading in a bit different era now...I know that market historians would not like this, but....Stocks have won the psychological war...after years of above-average gains....people are not going to put there money in banks, CDs as in the past...My point being, sure, this is liquidity driven, but are we really going to see a sustained decline in liquidity (over many months) given the experience of investors (seeing the fantastic results of buying dips over the last few years)...October 8th helped contribute to today's sharp bounceback... I do not see the (big picture) liquidity hose drying up anytime soon...I do think the "January effect" has slowed however, so short-term, gains will not come close to the first 10 days (for many stocks).. IMO, we are in a long phase of above-norm PE's...and will probably continue to trend a bit higher in the future (along as inflation, interest rates stay in check)... Also, I believe large caps have won the war against small caps..and therefore, will trade at above-norm PE's for quite a while.... (3) I agree that Brazil is a mess...but, IMO, this is going to play out slowly over many weeks...similiar to the Clinton trial, I dont think we will see any panic among most investors. mostly confusion, and some boredom...... (4) I think volatility is here to stay, given the large (and growing) number of daytraders in the world, and the continued interest in internets....IMO, this has a few more months to play itself out too.. Finally, what do think the market's reaction will be if Clinton proposes investing some of the Social Security trust fund in the State of Union speech? Yowza!