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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wren who wrote (2849)	1/13/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

re:Hulbert report. For some reason they like to recycle this no matter how many years go by they insist on starting the survey just before the 1987 crash supposedly so they can include a bear market. This is getting more ludicrous every year as we are now about 11 1/2 years later. However we still see these comparisons that don't want to look at 5 years or 10 years but specifically want to rerun this comparison starting immediately before the crash which was in fact a very extraordinary event and was clearly not a normal bear market Marc.

To: Wren who wrote (2849)	1/13/1999 11:59:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

History is very useful. Much can be learned. What I have learned is it seems that Brinker has learned the difference between a correction and a bear market. Unlike the 30% 1987 "correction", Brinker stayed fully invested in the >20% correction of 1998 (in real time it was over 20%, but still a correction, not a bear - hence we disagree on terms, but resuts, we don't) Bottom line, Bob Brinker and/or his timing model kept his investors in on the last correction. In 1987, he went to cash at the bottom (greatly reduced asset allocation to equities) and I think was back on the bull wagon by sometime in 1990. This is what the old charts show and is certainly fair to go back that far, but it seems the most recent 5 or 10 years is more relavent. In this article suite101.com, I list the top timers by Timer Digest for the last 2 years and their predictions for the DOW. Brinker is in a 3-way tie for second place. Pretty darn good by any standard. Thanks for the heads-up. I will have to get this magazine.

To: Wren who wrote (2849)	1/14/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: mister topes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

The January Marketimer reports the newsletter performance as follows: Model Portfolio I has an eleven year compound annual return of 14.2% for 1988 through 1998 inclusive. Model II has an eleven year compound annual return of 14.1% for the same period. These are 100% stock market portfolios. Sometimes Hulbert includes bond portfolios in his annual numbers such as Brinker's Fixed Income Portfolio which lowers the average returns. The equity returns of 14.2 and 14.1 over eleven years are straight from the Models as published.