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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (3940)	1/13/1999 10:01:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I-35 ROAD KILL TRADING SYSTEM - MDA End of Day Closing Numbers Indicator Analysis IND: (Dow Industrials Theoretical Data) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the IND low for the day penetrated the centerline of its long term moving envelope with the theoretical low. However, it closed above. Often when this occurs, it means the IND is moving to the lower side of the moving envelope and will pullback at least short-term. My Short-Term MACDX Indicator is in a sale signal as of 1/12/99. My medium and longer term Indicators are still in buy signals. TRAN: (Dow Transports Theoretical Data) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the TRAN is a ditto of the above for the IND. Except, it closed below the centerline of its long term moving envelope. In addition, the TRAN penetrated its 200 day SMA with the theoretical low. NYA: (NYSE Composite) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the NYA is a ditto of the IND with the following exceptions: 1) The short-term sell signal came a day earlier on 1/11/99. 2) It closed below the long term moving envelope centerline. 3) The lows touched the lower edge of the moving envelope. COMPX: (NASDAQ Composite) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the COMPX still looks strong. I received a short-term sell signal with today's closing numbers. However, the medium and long term indicators are still on buy signals. The price action took the low of the day below its long term moving trading channel centerline. But, it did close strongly. I consider this a divergence from the price action of the IND/DJI, TRAN and NYA. RUT: (Russell 2000) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the RUT is a ditto of my indicators for the IND. It also traded below it long term moving trading channel centerline today, but did close strongly above. In addition, the RUT penetrated its 200 day SMA intraday. Conclusions: Often when the above indicators trade below their respective long term moving trading channel centerlines, they move to the lower side of the trading channel at least short term. This often portends a pullback, but can lead to sideways action as well. However, the strong action of the COMPX and RUT should be viewed as a possible divergence from this scenario. Intraday Analysis Well I am still in the testing stages of my indicators. I do not have nearly the abilities with my current intraday software as I do with my end of day software, so I am having to test some more conventional indicators. Looking at 4 Minute Intraday Interval Semi-Log Chart, using my Primary and Secondary Indicators: DJI: (Dow Industrials Actual Data) Secondary registered a buy at 15:58 EST, but needs confirmation from the Primary which is still on a sell. COMPX: (NASDAQ Composite) Same as the DJI. Note: The above indicators are still in the testing stage, so far so good…<g> Looking at the 60 Minute Intraday Semi-Log Charts, I see no meaningful chart formations revealed, other than the fairy tell I posted earlier today…<g> (All Disclaimers Apply) BWDIK Regards, LG