To: Sonki who wrote (13437 ) 1/14/1999 1:24:00 AM From: Alok Sinha Respond to of 64865
I will disagree with you on the view that YHOO is a value stock. It is relatively easy to grow revenues 4 to 6 fold when you are a 80 MM company. SUN and IBM make that much on a handful of servers. Try doing that when you get over a billion $. By its valuation today, the market is assuming that all the potential revenues for YHOO over the next 10 years will be realized at the current pace. That is just too much to digest, esp. since most of what they offer to cultimate consumers is for free. I use YHOO website probably 5 times a day - don't even care who advertises on it, and so my use of YHOO does not really translate into $ (just hits for which advertisers are paying). AOL is probably the only company in this internet mania which will make the big bucks. There also there is cause for concern once users start becoming more sophisticated and realize they don't need any spoonfeeding for 19.95 and g to competitors for 11.95. A vast number of AOL users are the once on 300 hours free deals. But they have a substantial base that they can keep intact. I always try to invest in companies at a time when I feel that they are affecting my decision making through their prodcts. To give you some example, I bought SUNW after experiencing the non-crash environment having worked on NT before. I bought Safeway when I started buying groceries there after switching from Luckys. I bought and sold CSCO (still regret that) based on how my connectivity at the workplace was based on their equipment. Unfortunately I also bought co like IFMX after using their database which was quite good. In most of their cases it was clear that some money would flow hrough to the companies from me or my company.I can see very clearly how SUN, IBM, MSFT , AOL, NOVL, ORCL , CSCO, LU/ASND wil make their big bucks off the internet explosion. Just don't see it for the Yahoos, eBays and the uBids. I use YHOO and a bunch of internet sites a lot, but don't see how they will ever make any money from me.Their business model (as a portal) will get them to maynbe a 1/2 to a 1 billion. It will be interesting to see how they make money after that. Everybody will be retailing the same stuff from all their site - so margins will come down. There just aren't enough barriers to entry and sustainable competitive advantages in this industry (like MSF, SUN , IBM, Coke, etc enjoy) for it to generate the profits and revenues the market is assuming from all players. Also insider selling is taking place in massive proportions. People that I know who work in some of these firs are itching to bail out while the going is good. Somehow people at Intel and Microsoft on't exhibit the smae eagerness. This has been logic for the las couple of months, and I will admit to date I have been totally off the mark. We will see where all these firms trade in a couple of years. Regards Alok