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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (3946)	1/14/1999 10:22:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

In terms of cycle lows, this is week 14 since the market bottom. In terms of the three cycles that comprise the 9-month intermediate market cycle: 1. The market just completed the strongest first third of the 40-week cycle (9-month). NEUTRAL. 2. The market is entering the weakest last third of the 20-week cycle . BEARISH. 3. The market just completed the strongest first third of the second 10-week cycle. NEUTRAL. So, in terms of the three cycles, the market should be moderating to down over the next six weeks. For a short-term bottom, the 5-day Wilder RSI is still declining and should bottom in the next week or so. In order to reverse yesterday's damage, one would need a strong up day (1% or more) on higher volume with more bullish reversals (Stochastics, Wilder, etc) than bearish reversals. Note: If this is a new bull market as some would contend, one could also overlay the dominant 4 year cycle which would indicate 12-16 months of a strong market as in 1995.