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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (3952)	1/14/1999 3:30:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Good opinions tonight and I have to add my confusion factor. Bullish - Earnings season is generally up and we have a mess of them next week so I expect up next week, period... We also rebounded off of just about every support line I had drawn on my charts this morning and recovered to almost even and above yesterday in some stocks. The bounce off supports, especially in the indexes is extremely bullish IMO. Bearish - Despite the closing prices, the volume was won on the short side. This mornings selling eclipsed the buying this afternoon. I think that the sellers knew the market was over valued and bailed at the first hint of danger and some of the smart money sat on the sidelines afraid to buy but willing to sit on their retained shares to see how high the bounce would go. (of course the counter argument is the shares were taken from the weak hands and are now in stronger hands) The other main consideration for anyone wanting to try and play the short term for the rest of this week is the 3 day weekend. How many of the big money people will be willing to hold over this 3 day weekend with Iraq heating up, South American woes etc. My charts gave sell signals on most securities but a day like today makes normal indicators iffy. My indicatores had me out 2 days ago as they tend to be ahead of the game most of the time but I am having problems finding stocks to buy should I decide to re-enter for the bounce next week. We either have or are about to have MACD and stochastic crossovers on most issues and indexes. With earnings next week, the bottom line gut prediction and looking at how the charts are lining up, I think we could go either way the next 2 days due to the above confusion factors but agree that we shouldn't go below today's lows. We are sitting on some important fork tines right now so I am watching to see if they hold. I expect a recovery next week due to earnings and seasonality and then once February starts we should see weakness culminating in a harder drop. I am still sticking with my call for a spring rebound before the final plunge this summer. I don't think we will bounce back up so quickly at the end of this year. <ng> To anyone visiting my site, PM me if you find problems. I just re-did the whole thing since it was getting out of hand. I am no HTML programmer but tonights dry run seemed to go OK. (PS - I had an inquiry on another thread about it and it is semi private to keep out lurkers and MMs. Hopefully most of the regulars here already have the address.) Lee

To: Compadre who wrote (3952)	1/14/1999 6:21:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================================= The rebound in the NAZ yesterday has many optimistic that this pullback is over; however I feel that is premature to make that conclusion yet. Until the recent peaks are taken out to the upside this pullback, consolidation period is basicly not over. Please keep in mind that markets dont always go straight up and down and to make a decision on 1 days performance, may not be that successful. Since my short-term technicals are smack in the middle the market can go in either direction. EUROPE is up slightly and the futures were as high as 9 this morning, but when the fair value is calculated in it is up around 3-4. My short-term technicals for the overall market is smack in the middle, and I calculated that on the basis of time it can go 2-4 days in either direction to become either overbought or oversold. I have previously indicated that JAN 17 was the 55 day FIB TOP-to-TOP. It is possible that we get a retest of the recent peaks and if it fails to pierce the resistances formed by the recent peaks to the upside, such would form a mini-DOUBLE-TOP implying negativity. Many may feel optimistic if we continue to move up, but my belief is that if we do move up some but do not exceed the previous peaks and form a double top, such is a stronger negative signal. Double tops, even mini-DOUBLE TOPS imply stronger pullbacks. So I feel optimism should not start untill the peaks are taken out, since only a retest of those levels would imply a stronger pullback. For those wanting to play the short-side, a DOUBLE-TOP formation would be a good opportunity to initiate puts, if it gets back that high. Since my short-term technicals are smack in the middle the market can go in either direction. On a intraday basis, many of the indexes including the NAZ broke their lower trendlines to the downside yesterday. It is my belief that those levels could be retested and exceeded to the downside during this consolidation period. Again, if the previous peaks are pierced to the upside then this pullback is over. Seeya