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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (3959)	1/14/1999 9:49:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

donald: Interesting open this AM. COMPX gapped up but is moving down. DJI continues its move down. Will the price action follow yesterday's signal and follow the norm. This would mean price action will move to the lower side of the long term moving trading envelopes? This would portend lower prices at least short-term. Major Indices once again showing divergence. Time will tell... Regards, LG

To: donald sew who wrote (3959)	1/14/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: HighTech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald: Did you hear Jerry Favors on CNBC? Anyone know what he said? I missed it. HiTech

To: donald sew who wrote (3959)	1/14/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I-35 ROAD KILL TRADING SYSTEM – MDA Well the Market performed as expected today with many of the major Indices dropping into the lower half of their respective long term trading envelopes. This most often leads to continued price action in this lower range for at least a few days. End of Day Data Analysis IND (Dow Industrials Theoretical Data) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, one will note that the IND moved into the lower half of its long term trading envelope. Its theoretical low found support at the 50 Day SMA and the lower edge of its long term trading envelope. Note that both the 50 Day SMA, the lower edge of its long term trading envelope coupled with the 200 Day SMA formed the final support for the last pullback and platform from which the last rally launched. TRAN (Dow Transports Theoretical Data) ) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, one will note that the TRAN moved into the lower half of its long term trading envelope. Its theoretical low found support at the 50 Day SMA and penetrated the lower edge of its long term trading envelope. In addition, the TRAN closed below its 200 Day SMA. UTIL (Dow Utilities Theoretical Data) I usually do not post this Indice, but thought it important tonight. Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the UTIL continues to trade in the lower half of its long term trading envelope, with its theoretical low for today penetrating the lower band of the envelope. The UTIL is currently on sell signals from all my indicators except the long-term confirmation signal. I suspect some consolidation in this area. COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the COMPX found support today at the centerline of its long term trading envelope and continues to trade in the upper half. The COMPX continues to show strength and diverges from the IND/DJI, and NYA. Since the Oct 8th low the COMPX has found support at this centerline on each minor pullback. RUT (Russell 2000) Looking at the Daily Semi-Log Chart, the RUT found support as did the COMPX at the centerline of its long term trading envelope, closing just above it. After having penetrated its 200 Day SMA yesterday, it managed to trade above it all day. End of Day Conclusions: The Market as measured by the IND/DJI: In the most recent past, a move through to the lower half of its long term trading envelope has lead to a bearish consolidation pattern such as a pennant or flag. It is to early to call a pattern, but I would keep an eye out for one. Time will tell… Intraday Analysis (Looking at the 4 Minute Interval Semi-Log Charts) DJI (Dow Industrials Actual Data) My secondary indicator gave a sell signal at 15:58 EST, but my primary indicator is in a buy signal and needs to confirm. However, it is moving in that direction. COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) Both my primary and secondary indicators were in sell signals at the close. (Looking at the 30 Minute Interval Semi-Log Charts) One could make an argument for a completed head and shoulders on the DJI, but as most of you know I tend to discount those patterns. The DJI is finding support in the 9100/9080 area. If it does not hold next support should be in the 9000 and 8950 areas. The COMPX if it does not find support at present levels next support should be in the 2250 area. The SPX if it does not find support at present levels next support should be in the 1200/1190 area. I think David Plonk would say 1192 area…<g> Intraday Conclusions The Market as measured by the IND/DJI: Since it closed close to the lower band of its long term trading envelope, I would expect some downside movement at the open, but would expect a medium to strong intraday rally with the IND/DJI closing up for the day. However, I would expect it to trade and close with in the confines of the lower half of its trading envelope. The parameters being approximately 9332 to 9076. (All Disclaimers Apply) So Donald what do you think, give me some feed back. Does your guitar allow for my scenario? I am taking a chance with the calls above on expiry...so folks give me a break...<g> BWDIK Regards, LG

To: donald sew who wrote (3959)	1/15/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Electric	Respond to of 99985

don, I had to complement a great Class One Sell call you made a few days ago, right on the money as quite often you are.. <EOM>

To: donald sew who wrote (3959)	1/15/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 99985

Don, Since your timing signals are right on time; one would believe that we are in the middle of a range trading market; which I believe your timing signals were generated to catch. What were the trends when your signals were early or late? Thanks, Dave