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Technology Stocks : PROGRAMMER'S PARADISE (PROG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris O'Keefe who wrote (246)	1/14/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Wei Yu	Respond to of 2383

Chris, you did not miss anything. The problem is the market likes the money losing internet stock and not the money making internet stock :). Wei.

To: Chris O'Keefe who wrote (246)	1/14/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: Bruce A. Thompson	Respond to of 2383

Chris, Yes, this is a no-brainer. If it were a money loser like AMZN, it would be selling for 400 x 10 year's earnings. Zeev doesn't miss by much if at all. Bruce

To: Chris O'Keefe who wrote (246)	1/14/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2383

Chris, their sales are not same quarter after quarter. Third quarter sales where $54 MM and fourth quarter where $72 MM. Since their breakeven is around $48 MM (assuming increased SG&A to $6 MM/quarter), once they go above this more money goes to the bottom line. in techstocks.com I suggest a "possible" scenario of next year sales, talking into account that the third quarter is usually weak and the fourth quarter is strong. Yet, I do think that over the whole of next year they should earn $1.20 and yes, the current price is quite rational. Zeev Zeev

To: Chris O'Keefe who wrote (246)	1/14/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Bill J. Landis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2383

re: figuring earnings to be $1.20 This was touched upon, but not emphasized enough that I would have understood if I didn't know it already ... The main reason you can't really take the .30 earnings for this quarter and multiply by 4 to get a $1.20 annual earnings is that many sectors are cyclical so that earnings for some quarters are consistently higher than others (I think some companies may even consistently LOSE money 2 or 3 quarters of the year, but come out with positive annual earnings because 1 quarter is always huge). I haven't done a ton of research on it, and as was mentioned, PROG's earnings depend largely on when key software products are released, but my gut feeling is that 4th quarter may tend to be higher than the other three, so while >$1 is definitely reasonable, $1.20 may be a bit overly optimistic (although I'm not one to argue with Zeev). Now I only wish I had more cash on hand for these wholesale prices ;).