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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil forex mkts seen losing btwn $500 mln-$1 bln Reuters, Thursday, January 14, 1999 at 13:16 SAO PAULO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Brazil should see net dollar outflows of between $500 million and $1 billion through foreign exchange markets on Thursday, traders said, after a currency devaluation on Wednesday spurred further capital flight. "Investors, especially foreigners, aren't convinced we won't devalue more," a trader at a local brokerage said. "Still, it could be worse," he said, referring to the capital flight which topped $1.5 billion a day after the Russia crisis. The Central Bank implemented on Wednesday a new, wider trading band and the currency quickly tumbled 8 percent against the dollar. For the past two days, the Central Bank has been forced to sell dollars to keep the real within the new trading band set at between 1.20 and 1.32 to the dollar. As of 1545 local/1745 GMT, a net $107 million had flowed out of forex markets. Traders said they expected the daily net outflows to come in between $500 million and $1 billion, under Wednesday's $1.095 billion. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Telemark...do you have connections down there...able to find out what is going on? sf

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Summers cancelling his overseas trip probably should have been a sign of trouble to come. sf

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil denies Finance Minister Malan to resign Reuters, Thursday, January 14, 1999 at 12:37 Franco's proximity to Malan, the main players in President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's economic team, fueled speculation that Malan might be leaving also, traders said. Malan refused to discuss the possibility of resignation in the event that the controlled devaluation failed in an interview Wednesday on Reuters Television. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Trading resumes in Brazil at 2:15...

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil's tax revenue rises 13.5 pct in 1998 Reuters, Thursday, January 14, 1999 at 13:47 The Revenue Service said in a statement that 1998 revenues were boosted by one-off payments, such as the state's licensing fees from the telecommunications holding privatization in mid-1998. Without this extraordinary income, revenue would have been flat from 1997 at 118.5 billion reais, the statement said. An increase in the tax rate on investment funds, to 20 percent from 15 percent, also brought in 6.9 billion reais more in revenue last year. The tax revenue on industrial goods fell for all sectors except beverages, as economic growth slowed to an estimated 1 percent in 1998. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil shrs plunge 10 pct, trading halted 30 mins Reuters, Thursday, January 14, 1999 at 13:59 SAO PAULO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Brazilian shares plunged 10 percent in afternoon trade Thursday, triggering the circuit-breaker which halts trading for 30 minutes, the Bovespa stock exchange said. Trading will resume at 1715 local/1915 GMT. Sao Paulo's Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X) was suspended at 5,053 points. Shares tumbled after Brazil's currency devalued more than 8 percent against the dollar on Wednesday. Shares extended losses on Thursday on concerns the new trading band might not hold, leading to a further devaluation, traders said. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: Telemarker who wrote (11686)	1/14/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil heightens fears of worsening Europe slowdown Reuters, Thursday, January 14, 1999 at 12:36 By David Crossland FRANKFURT, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Financial turmoil in emerging markets has come back to haunt Europe, with the de facto devaluation of Brazil's currency reigniting fears that the world may be on the brink of a global recession after all. Economists said on Thursday it remained to be seen whether Brazil's problems heralded a new period of emerging market turmoil. But they were certain that Brazil has worsened the risk of a severe economic slowdown in the euro area this year. "This will further hurt business sentiment because it shows the emerging markets crisis is not over," said Eckhard Schulte, economist at Industrial Bank of Japan. "It increases the downside risk for European growth." The Brazilian crisis, which hit on Wednesday with the resignation of Brazil central bank chief Gustavo Franco and the news it was widening the trading band for the real, ended months of relative calm in financial markets after a summer bout of severe turmoil. It coincided with mounting evidence that the past 18 months of devaluations, debt problems and recession in Russia and much of Asia are causing a severe economic slowdown in Europe through a weakening of global demand for exports. Most analysts now expect the European Central Bank to respond by lowering its main refinancing rate before the end of March, by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, with a further cut to 2.50 percent expected by mid-1999. Meanwhile Germany's Federal Statistics Office warned on Thursday that German exports slowed sharply in the second half of 1998 and could take their toll on domestic capital investment in 1999. Statistics Office President Johann Hahlen said that while there were signs of a decline in German unemployment, German exports to to Southeast Asia, Japan and Russia could be said to have "collapsed." "A look at the development in the course of the year 1998 shows that foreign demand lost significant momentum. The southeast Asian and Russian crises contributed to this," Hahlen said. The Office also reported robust 2.8 percent growth in Europe's largest economy in 1998 but the figure was overshadowed by analysts' estimates that the economy stagnated or even contracted slightly in the final quarter. "What we have seen is a significant contraction in industrial confidence, orders and output. All the indicators point to a contraction in Q1 in Germany, which is a technical recession," said Norman Williams, an economist at Barclays Capital Management. Deutsche Bank Research estimates that the German economy shrank by about half a percentage point in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. It sees German economic growth falling to 1.6 percent in 1999 and expects growth in the euro area to slow to 2.0 percent this year from just under three percent in 1998. "The question is whether Brazil will be another domino prompting other economies to fall. So far we see this risk as limited," said Ulrich Beckmann, senior economist at DB Research. Most recent data point to a slowdown. A Reuters survey of purchasing managers published on Tuesday showed manufacturing output and orders in the euro area declined in December for the third consecutive month. Also on Tuesday, Germany released industrial output data showing a 2.3 percent fall in November from October while a record trade surplus of 16.7 billion marks in November masked an underlying export slowdown. And French GDP data for the third quarter of 1998 showed a slowdown in growth to 0.5 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous quarter. frankfurt.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service