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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (46049)	1/14/1999 6:42:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1583326

Scumbria, >Re: The conference call sounded quite candid, upbeat, and nothing >like it was initially portrayed. As an engineer, I found the >technical explanations quite palatable. The problem here is not the facts: Good volumes, Increasing marketshare, >400K of 400Mhz K7 sampling this month K-3 already in production The problem is the way the company communicates with these ANALYSTS. Last quarter they blindsided them with Good news. This quarter they were blindsided by "bad" news. Either way these Analysts are pissed off as they are made to look like idiots. The company needs to build credibilty with these folks and should have changed it's guidance IMHO. The end result is that the stock is in tatters. If they had gotten the truth out earlier I bet the stock would be much higher than it is right now. The analysts would have much more faith in the numbers etc. The problem here is AMD's IMHO. They don't know ho to manage expectations. In fact they would have been much more credible if their guidance for this quarter was sales etc would be lower this quarter. If they really look like shipping 5.5M in Q1 they could have had a release in end of february etc. Now if they ship 4.5-5.0 M units they will miss again and get killed for missing the number. Same thing on increasing margins to 40% etc. The folks who know how to play this game always set expectations low and then surprise on the up-side. And if they miss their internal expectations they still meet the number and everybody is happy. regards, kash

To: Scumbria who wrote (46049)	1/14/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Respond to of 1583326

Scumbria Re:<The conference call sounded quite candid, upbeat, and nothing like it was initially portrayed. As an engineer, I found the technical explanations quite palatable.> I also listened through the entire conference call -- there is a gap after about an hour of about a minute which could lead one to believe that the CC had ended. The CC lasts another 1/2 hour. K6-2 & 3 should be at 500MHz by end of 1Q99 - expect announcement then on improvements. 1.4M K6 sold in Europe 4Q-98. 1.3M K6 sold in Asia & Japan 4Q-98. K6-3 faster clock for clock than PII, and named after Pentium new release with which they expect to be fully competitive. KNI support will not exist 'till directX-7.0 All sales booked are to end users -- not to wholesale dealers. While holding to 20-25M units for 1999, 5.5M units is a quarterly floor - more at end of 1Q-99. Dresden - 1St. silicon is out, will produce copper chips in 4Q-99 & will contribute to earnings in 1Q-2000. Etc. Lots of good stuff there! tgptndr