France and India Contemplate Strategic Alliance
Summary:
* Russia, France, China, and India all agree on the need for a
counterbalance to U.S. global hegemony. Russia, France and China
have cooperated in the UN against U.S. initiatives, and Russia
and France are both strengthening relations with India. However,
the inability to bridge the gap of hostility between India and
China may prove to be the Achilles heel of this bifurcated anti-
U.S. alliance.
Analysis:
Following his four-day visit to France and talks with his French
counterpart Alain Richard, Indian Defense Minister George
Fernandes said India and France intended to turn their
cooperation over defense into a close long-term military
relationship. Fernandes told the Press Trust of India (PTI) that
the two countries had explored possibilities for establishing a
military relationship that would include joint ventures and
technology transfers. The Indian Defense Minister said that
France's rejection of the U.S. proposal to impose economic
sanctions on India following the nuclear tests conducted in May
1998 encouraged positive developments in the relationship between
Paris and New Delhi. Neither the Indian nor the French Defense
Minister commented directly on whether they discussed potential
Indian arms purchases from France at the meeting.
The formation of a strengthened military bond between France and
India follows the recent enhancing of politico-military
relationships between Russia and France, Russia and India, and
between both Russia and France and China. At a meeting between
French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine and his Russian
counterpart Igor Ivanov in Moscow this week, both countries
declared they held almost identical positions on all
international problems, mainly on Iraq and Kosovo. When Russian
Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov also met visiting the French
Foreign Minister, the Russians voiced their concern that the
United States has come to dominate international affairs.
Primakov said, "We are fully aware that measures are needed to
preserve the order that stabilizes the international situation."
At the meeting, Russia reiterated its rejection of NATO's
expansion into Eastern Europe, and France stressed a need for
increased self-reliance on the part of the Western European
powers.
Further evidence of the close tie between Russia and France took
place on January 14 when Russian chief delegate to the UN Sergei
Lavrov hailed France's proposal for a new UN policy towards Iraq.
Lavrov said that French proposals, including lifting of the oil
embargo and new system of weapons monitoring, were "a very
important and useful move, offering a chance to start searching
more fruitfully for a way out of the dead-end." Clearly, Moscow
and Paris are now openly coordinating their actions in an attempt
to counterbalance Washington's global dominance. We anticipate
further coordination of the Russian and French stance on
international issues to emerge during the planned visit to Paris
by Russian President Boris Yeltsin's on January 28-29. The visit
will be Yeltsin's first foreign trip since October of last year,
signaling the importance both sides assign to their mutual
relations.
Besides strengthening its politico-military ties with France,
Russia has been working intensively to fortify its respective
alliances with China and India. On the one hand, Russia-Chinese
relations are currently at their best since the early 1950s,
largely due to Yevgeni Primakov's diplomatic efforts during the
past two years before he left his post as Russia's Foreign
Minister for his new position as Prime Minister. And, on the
other, at the conclusion of Primakov's visit to India in December
of last year, Russia and India issued a joint statement in which
they condemned the U.S. missile strikes against Iraq and
announced their intention to form a new strategic partnership.
The two countries signed a new long-term defense agreement, which
includes joint research and military technology transfer. The
details of the new arrangement will undoubtedly be discussed at
India and Russia's next bilateral summit meeting. Culminating
these diplomatic initiatives, Russian PM Primakov proposed in
December a Russian-Chinese-Indian "strategic triangle."
Russia, China, France, and India all share the view that U.S.
global hegemony must be counterbalanced. Blocs are being
established along Russia-China-France and Russia-India-France
lines. Yet in spite of Primakov's suggestion of a geopolitical
realignment bringing China and India together for a common end,
he did not elicit a positive response from either country. Both
countries have, nevertheless, continued to strengthen their ties
with Moscow, which has fortified Russia's political position in
the Asia. But Russia can not close the loop. What stands in the
way of this realignment is the simple fact that India and China
consider each other as primary regional enemies. The animosity
between China and India is therefore the "Achilles heel" of the
emerging alliance among France, India, Russia, and China, an
alliance that aspires to re-create a multi-polar world in
response to U.S. dominance. While Chinese-Indian conflict could
spoil this relationship even without prompting, the U.S. could
exploit this weakness to destabilize this new geopolitical
alignment.
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