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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Triplett who wrote (59183)	1/14/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: Warren Gates	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

I think we're pretty safe with earnings this quarter. They wouldn't have done the deal if one other estimates is bound to disappoint. It even seems like they were on a hurry-up offense. In Lucent's case, they want to buy it now before Ascend's price runs up. They must have anticipated this after peeking at the coming earnings report. Lucent's report should also be a blowout, otherwise, Ascend wouldn't have agreed. Another thing not yet discussed is this. Lucent is a big cap Wall Street darling. It is in almost all big cap funds. Ascend often is bypassed because of Cisco. Buying Ascend is like Lucent issuing a secondary offering without diluting earnings. I anticipate a new wave of mutual fund buying. It probably started already this past 2 days t o take advantage of the expiration manipulation being done. Buying Ascend now before the 2 earnings report next week makes the most sense. If both companies report blowout earnings, and Lucent climbs back to $120, that's a price of $102 for Ascend. Even the last holdouts should be happy and ask their lawyers to go home. And the arbs also would probably not even bother playing this done deal so the spread should narrow considerably.