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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (4017)	1/14/1999 10:25:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Monty Lenard: Thanks for the scan, I have missed them...<g> Regards, LG

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (4017)	1/14/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanx Monty; That sure is a conformation, and you can see they started down on the 6th, while I didn't catch it this way, I knew something was wrong by the 8th, and I was concerned because I had got that small cap run up, ( not as much as I expected yet some of it was at the expense of big caps ) and that worried me even more. Note the super cap index on this quote.yahoo.com^mid+%5Ehfx2++%5ESPX++%5EOEX&d=5d See how it was ticking down most every day, and where the sml cap index actually held up..( well by contrast to the big caps there a lot of much smaller ones inside the S&P500, and even the DOW that can mask the fact that a lot of money is being pulled out of the market ) Meanwhile those pundits on CNBC were doing damage control all week and parading one guru after another talking about how much money was going into the market ( BUT THAT WAS HISTORY NOT NEWS ) The news was it was leaving the market , and if they couldn't see it how o how to they have the nerve to act so smug and all knowing. To hear them talk every day as they sputtered words on how she was off her lows, & making a rebound, and on on on till they were giving me more nausea than my Gaul stones. So now that the DOW is already down 500pts I wonder how they will window dress a small bounce say off 9000 , will that be some kind of new record for them. I don't expect them to be able to call the market, but how they can even call themselves reporters beats me. They are more like historians, I can see Mark, o by the way folks the dow has lost just a little over 5% so far this week.. Now when most people think a 10% correction is a big deal, and them yo yos don't even seem to notice until over half of that has happened, it makes me scratch my head. ------------ This fast drop in the 10 and 20 MDA is a sign of momentum, while we may bounce some tomorrow I doubt it will improve it enough that we won't have more down side next week, unless GreemSpam opens the money flood gates again, I tell people to watch this biz.yahoo.com Do you see what the FED did on the 7th and 8th, & now they have been adding since the 11th so it may check itself. The thing is it's all so crooked that at best you can just call the very short term about half the time, while the special banking fraternity gets the inside dope up front. Check the fed Repos every day, and thanks again for the MDAs 9000 is a support level but I'm not so sure it will hold. Jim

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (4017)	1/15/1999 1:11:00 PM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Monty: Interesting data. Thanks. I am trying to understand how you use this as a predictive indicator, however. If you look back in the Aug/Sep/Oct time frame, the 10 & 20 day percentages are quite wild and I cannot imagine they would be predictive of the Sept/Oct low. On the other hand, in July/August a move below the 60% level for the 200d could have sent a sell signal. And likewise, maybe there is a predictive level here on the buy side. What is you experience with this indicator? Z