Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (20815)	1/15/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

Thanks for the kind words. Now when do I sell? Selling correctly is always harder to do than buying. The real question is who is going to be able to handle the transition from circuit switched to packet switched networks best. It seems on the surface that those with the most packet switched experience (CSCO) should do better, but history shows that the best technology doesn't always win. Other factors will probably decide the battle. Years ago Intel and Microsoft products weren't the best, but they still won. George Guilder's predictions of almost free bandwidth may be coming true soon. A new research report comments that that in the 36 months ending 12/31/99 the amount of fiber cable in use will be 100 times that deployed in all of previous history. Furthermore, new SONAT technology allows fiber networks to work at over 5000 times the speed of copper T1 lines. This kind of progress reminds me of the early days of the PC. In most business old infrastructure is valuable. For instance railroad lines are good even if you change the locomotive. In telecommunications the old analog type networks costs can't decline as fast as digital costs, therefore at some point old networks no matter how cheaply acquired will be unprofitable to use. They will have to be replaced.The incumbent carriers lack the usual advantage. This is truly a disruptive event..It's probably the biggest business opportunity since the invention of the PC, and will generate some fantastic investment results for those smart/lucky enough to detect trends early.. There will probably be several winners but one dominant company. My guess is that Cisco has a slight lead. Maybe the best way to play it is to own a package of 2 or 3 companies, and gradually concentrate on whichever appears to be leading.