To: Joe Sabatini who wrote (89350 ) 1/15/1999 2:49:00 PM From: Chuzzlewit Respond to of 176387
Joe, you raise some very good points. I listened to a lecture given by Lester Thurow and just finished reading Michael Murphy's book on high-tech stocks (highly recommended!), and two things are clear to me: first, there is a real industrial revolution going on right now, and the confluence of computing, telephony, and networking in the form of the internet is an economic juggernaut that will render obsolete many of the traditional ways we do business. second, the tech sector has operated quite successfully in a disinflationary environment from its very inception. Murphy points out that tech companies in the aggregate have grown at a clip far outpacing the general economy -- 20% per annum! The difficulty comes in trying to figure out what you should pay for a stock. Earnings in tech companies are so explosive, and risk factors so labile, that valuation almost becomes an exercise in throwing darts. So I am left with two opposing forces. On the one hand we have the inexorable march of progress which favors high-tech companies. On the other hand we have an economic system that is more closely geared to smokestacks and assembly lines, and it is this sector that seems to control market sentiment. In general I think that Voltaire is right within limits. You need to be invested in tech stocks (but not the internuts -- that is gambling, not investing), and you need to stay the course. Look at it this way. If the internet is the wave of the future doesn't it require servers and routers and hubs etc.? Doesn't that mean that companies like Dell and CSCO and LU/ASND will profit handsomely? With the proliferation of networks (both internet and intranet) doesn't that mean that companies that improve network security will prosper? Companies like NETA? TTFN, CTC