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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bald Eagle who wrote (4060)	1/15/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Eagle; I guess I could have found several more that have longer track records than I said, but the point was mostly to caution people about being to hopeful or reckless in the oil service sector. I'm sure it has more down side, and most bounces at this time if just based on oil prices will be nothing but a flash in the pan. Rig count is the easy way for the regular investor to get an idea, but it's not an end all. Day rates are harder to track if your not in the business or know some one who is. ------------- There are still new Rigs under construction, and I see Yahooies thinking that's a good sign, they don't realize those orders were placed ( and deposits made as long as two years ago ) and that as the new stuff comes on line it will put more downward pressure on day rates. Go to a big news paper in N.O. or Houston, and look back over the help wanted adds in the oil service sector. ( cull out the head hunters , just use the direct company adds ), head hunter ( agency) adds may go up as the sector goes down. You can often tell how healthy a sector is by tracking the "help wanted" in larger news papers, but you need some idea of the past average. biz.yahoo.com I think if that don't tell the story to you then nothing will. I've been bearish on this sector over six months, and damm if I see any bottom yet, except TDW may be getting close to hers. Many of them will lose another 30 to 50% before it's over. Remember they get way way over bought, and way way over sold, the extremes run both directions. Fair value has very little to do with it, now days who is going to hang onto a stock just because it's a value play when they can make money buying some tulips. The mutual funds know that people are looking for performance and are competing to get NAVS up, be careful of what they hype sometimes it's just talking up a position they want to unwind. Jim