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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (46172)	1/15/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 1573458

Scumbria, if you look at Needham/LaFountain's recent record on AMD it's been very good. biz.yahoo.com If you look at the analysts who were doing the downgrading and/or bitching to the press yesterday isn't it amazing how they were the ones either upping their estimates or ratings recently? DLJ/Boucher ups it to that nutty "top pick" rating/marketing gimmick mid-November and cuts it when they disappoint. That's terrific. We're all quite impressed. Kumar...where do you start? Look at this quote from Dow Jones where he takes a direct shot at AMD and sneaks in an indirect one against his peers: "They can't execute on a consistent basis," said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. He added that, in his view, AMD's management has "zero credibility" because analysts "take what management says at face value" only to be disappointed. Hey, Ashok...YOU UPPED YOUR ESTIMATE, so maybe instead of taking potshots at everyone else in the world and deflecting attention from your own lastest debacle you'd show some class and deal with it. [Also, I would suggest some coursework in Logic.] Example of something that's not only classier, but also cuts to the heart of the event from the same article: But Brown Brothers Harriman analyst William Milton was more generous. "Analysts got carried away, that's all," Milton said. Management's "guidance was never that detailed ... they weren't misleading at all." I'd like to have seen at least one article on AMD in which Kumar was quoted where the writer also mentioned the fact that the guy being quoting on the subject of "credibility" is the same guy who had raised his estimates over 60% just 3 sessions prior. Good trading, Tom

To: Scumbria who wrote (46172)	1/15/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: Jadrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573458

Value of Analysts: Just spent a little time on Yahoo looking at the "Analysts" historical ratings for AMD. After AMD had risen from $18 range in early March to approximately $28 in late March/early April, the only rating changes were upgrades at the higher price (Volpe Brown, BA Rbtsn Stphs, Prudential, Piper Jaffry, NB Montgomery). The stock subsequently fell to $13 in early September. Volpe Brown did manage to get their clients out July 9th at $16 (a downgrade) for a minimal 40% loss. Given the latest price decline, out comes the latest downgrades AFTER the drop. Now I know the analysts don't like to have buy ratings on stocks that has fallen 30%, so changing their rating AFTER the FACT always occurs. That Fact is revenue shortfall of 4 cents a share, about $6 million or about a buck per ASP. Congrats to Needham & Co. And thanks Intel for selling me your PII 450 (or was it a 300A celeron - I forget) for $80. Must have made a big margin on that sale.