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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (11827)	1/15/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Yes I was referring to the devaluation. Regarding todays movements...the day's not over yet. As always I'll be watching closely as the Bovespa closes around 3:00. Am considering buying Feb puts, but ya just never know. This seems to have opened the valve on the pressure cooker. TBH, even with a 20% devaluation factored in, is still attractively priced in the $130 range IMO. If investor sentiment starts returning, could keep moving higher and base perhaps in the $70-$80 range for the time being. I think the IMF's position (they already seem to have eluded today that things will remain a go), any speculation on short term interest rates, Congressional votes next week, word on states payment problems, and whether or not they still plan on shutting down for basically the entire month of February for Carnival, and the spin the press puts on Brazil debt will all be determining factors over the next week or so. I think we'll see some earnings soon also, with the pressure off on the currency, more folks may start taking a second look at fundamentals...finally. In anwswer to your question, I suppose I'm cautiously optimistic, but been here, done this. As you put it, the problems were more than built some time ago. Like I said nibbling at options. Never really nibbled before. sf