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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1360)	1/16/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

OK - this bizarre gaspump discussion stops right here. Maurice... you snake in sheepfarmer's disguise... don't try to turn this into a standard discussion, you're confusing newbies. ESSO happens to be an Exxon subsidiary and they're merely trying to prevent future lawsuits. This is an American approach, none of the European chains have announced similar measures. They now have signs warning customers in Finnish McDonald's that coffee is hot - that's not a European invention, either. We may be hysterical about children's toys, but apparently no continent has a monopoly on stupidity. Let's talk about something much more interesting. Like the CDMA vs. GSM struggle in Singapore. Remember? This is the frontline of the struggle for Asia, one of the few markets where the standards are already battling head-to-head. Or were supposed to battle. There was so much I liked in that new article on the topic. It's hard to choose a favorite. This is pretty good: "SingTel Mobile has decided not to launch a new Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) mobile phone network for the time being, due to slowing subscriber growth, among other reasons." But I also found this very compelling: "There is also a corresponding increase in concern over the compatibility of narrowband CDMA system with the third generation system and its ability to upgrade into one, he added." However, in the end, this is probably the best bit: "SingTel's decision means that rival Mobile One will remain the lone CDMA operator in Singapore. This will not help M1's efforts to drum up more interest in the network. CDMA users now account for less than 3 per cent of M1's total subscriber base. The bulk are GSM users." When you consider how influential Singapore and Hong Kong are in showing the way for the rest of the Asia and combine this with the reluctance of China to expand CDMA you are getting some real insights. Especially into that recent claim from the CDMA camp that CDMA is on track to surpass GSM within 5 years, thanks to Asian growth. I'm still trying to figure out what George Gilder meant when he said he is "hopeful" about CDMA in China. I'd like to have Kenneth Starr to ask Mr. Gilder to define the meaning of "hopeful". Looking at recent network deals in Asia is illuminating. Singapore, Hong Kong and China are investing massively in new GSM networks with all kinds of added bells and whistles: boosted capacity, advanced SMS features, dual-band capacity, etc. All the current hot handset models there are GSM. It's also important to note that the CDMA operators in Japan are suffering from sky-high churn rates. People who sign on realize only afterwards that the new CDMA phones can deliver only a fraction of the stand-by time they get from the handsets of the other digital standard in Japan. It will be interesting to see what the CDMA subscriber additions during 1999 are and then compare them to early projections. Seems like the 3G debate is going the way I predicted last summer: the fear that IS-95 won't be compatible with W-CDMA is scaring away potential customers. The longer the debate goes on, the stronger the position of GSM will be in Asia. Especially as China and Nortel are looking more and more committed to W-CDMA as evidence from recent press releases show. This year is the year when the direction of Asia will be decided. And I'd say the key role will be played by China, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Tero