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Technology Stocks : Egghead Computer (EGGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bullw who wrote (5901)1/16/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: Larry Brubaker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8307
 
<<If Eggs can make a profit later this year, it will run cause its a proven operation.>>

Not necessarily. The market doesn't seem to like internuts that make a profit. Case in point is Programmers' Paradise (PROG). Programmers' Paradise sells software primarily to information technology professionals, primarily via catalog. It is now making the transition to e commerce. It has higher sales than EGGS ($230 million in '98), sales growth of 30% in '98, internet sales growth of 490%, is nicely profitable, PE ratio about 20, and has a total market cap. of only about $75 million. Compared to EGGS market cap. of $585 million.

So a company with higher sales, solid growth in sales, and is actually earning a profit is valued at about 1/8th of EGGS' market value. Go figure.



To: bullw who wrote (5901)1/16/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Anaxagoras  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8307
 
Hi Bull.

<<Remember for the past year since the losses associated with the decision to go e-commerce, eggs has been shunned. The company is very quiet since getting badly burned, that frustrates many who hate go slow and grow. Where are the squads of analysts who follow much smaller and riskier internet stocks?>>

Yes, this should basically be a slow and grow story, just accelerated a bit. <g> What I mean is that people should moderate their expectations. This should never ever run like YHOO, say, because after all it is only a retailer that will always have relatively slim margins. And though there are bizarre cases of overvaluation in the e-tailing segment like AMZN, that valuation is in part (only in small part, mind you) justified by the fact that AMZN is the leader, and leaders always get premiums- I think that coming up with relative valuations vis-a-vis leaders and cases of gross overvaluation is misleading, and so we should only do it to come up with the possible, not the probable- IOW, do the comparisons, but let yourself laugh at the same time and don't expect that valuation to actually be applied to EGGS. The story that called this the DELL of the next decade was ridiculous hype, IMO. The only times at which this stock will have obscene surges is during periods of absolute euphoria; euphoria should generally be sold. And yet in spite of these remakrs I'm long EGGS for a bunch of reasons, but I try to be realistic about things. As I said before, I would be very, very pleased to see a stock price of $30 before the end of this month. We have at least two possible triggers, the quarterly release and the initiation of coverage. I expect the latter to occur within a month. There will be analysts on the CC call. There is interest in the company. EGGS' numbers are needed for base line comparisons to other brand new companies in the e-biz, and the company has been in discussion with them. It is my belief that we will see coverage relatively soon once they report. BTW, just because there is coverage doesn't mean that it will necessarily be good. Although I doubt this will happen, it will not do much near term good if, for example, Prudential starts coverage on EGGS with a "Hold" or DLJ begins with "Market Perform". Again I would expect better, and it will be nice to get a write-up and estimates by a pro. Since small fry like myself are not allowed on the CC it would be nice to at least get a list of houses that participate on the call. That will at least give us a short list from which to pick likely candidates of coverage initiators.

Remember, not all "internet" stocks are created equal; there are many different business models in the internet arena, and the market place is only beginning to sort them out. One of those with the slimmest margins will be e-tail, and companies based on this model will have lower PSRs/PERs etc. applied to their valuations. But, man, look at that revenue growth shrouded in the still present techno-mystique of the internet, the still "Brave New World" of the web, and I'm bullish. Doesn't mean I won't sell the quarterly when it's announced, however.

As always, aggressive challenges to any and all of these thoughts are welcome.

Anaxagoras