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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alfredo Nova who wrote (11869)	1/16/1999 2:09:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 22640

Alfredo...I'm already up to my ears in shorted JAN 2000 TBR 125 puts (looong story). Also own the equiv to 400 shares of TBR pre split (also looong story). I plan on unloading all cellulars except perhaps TCP soon (too speculative for me in an already too speculative enviroment). Will hold all wirelines (TNE, TSP, TCS and EMT). From there, I am confident enough that I am slowly building up a portfolio of in-the-money or at-the-money April and July calls in rank order TNE, UBB, TSP. Already have a nice start on those. TNE will likely outperform and catch up multiple wise to the others in the next 60-90 days or so as BNDES auctions off a stake they still hold to an experienced operator. May also pick up a few TCP and TCS calls if they're still cheap enough after I have my fill of the others. I've been following too long to miss the grand opportunity, and I think we're almost there. In answer to your question, yes. I bought a few TNEDV's today and plan on adding to others as I spelled out on any pullbacks. Keep in mind US markets closed Monday. Will be curious to see what Brazil does. Should have an official IMF pledge to continue bail out plan by then. Good luck...thanks for the input! sf

To: Alfredo Nova who wrote (11869)	1/16/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: Telemarker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

OK, let's hang on for just a minute. Hate to be the skeptic, but I'm going to resist letting this one day movement in stock prices convince me that everything will soon be OK. How will they service all that dollar-denominated debt? Wouldn't the reforms agreed to with the IMF have been based upon forward looking assumptions that did not include much of Brazil's debt growing by 20-25%, almost overnight? Even if all the reforms fly through now, the debt hangover will linger for a long time to come. I don't like how these reforms are heavy on the tax side. Seems like these increases could well offset growth that could be promoted by a cheaper real and lower interest rates. While I am now regaining some confidence in the administration due to their decision to float the Real (they had no choice), I have nothing but contempt for the IMF. BOZOS! Just a few months ago we, along with the U.S. Congress were being warned of impending disaster if funds weren't forthcoming for the IMF. Well, they got the funds, squandered another $9BB and the inevitable still happened. Now these clowns have the balls to insult us with statements of approval and confidence, while the rest of the financial community downplays the importance of this devaluation upon the world's economies. Sorry, I can't help but be suspicious. CONfidence game? Just as one would have been correct to be skeptical last summer and fall in the wake of the wildly successful auctions, a healthy dose of caution seems to be in order here. Lastly, I hear that upon the news Friday morning, the Brazilian and U.S. capital markets reacted quite negatively. As I understand it, things all of a sudden turned around big time in Brazil, which led to a change of sentiment here. What could have caused that? I have one clear guess, and Steve have suggested such actions may be taking place on several occasions. Sometimes I think investors are developing the habit of judging the health of underlying fundamentals based upon movements in stock prices. A dangerous practice, to be sure. Leaves one's judgements open to manipulation. Yes, the GOB made the right move yesterday, the only move it could make. Clearly, if indeed they channeled their resources into the equities market rather than the currency market, they got a much larger bang for their buck. There seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel now, but we may not like what awaits on the outside. Random musings perhaps. Hope I haven't infuriated anyone. Comments/corrections, please. Saludos.