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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (35147)	1/16/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Peter Bernhardt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

My point was that it does not stay below the 15 DMA for any length of time. I think you make a valid point, however, that corrections in the thing can be severe. But, as you point out, The Thing does not stay down for long. The correction you mentioned lasted 24 days more or less. Look at where it went after that! True enough, but the situation is different as we look forward to the next few quarters. First, Amazon has had a phenomenal run since the fall correction -- carried upward by the hot air of the holiday e-commerce hype (great Dilbert cartoon this week lampooning said hype, btw). We'll learn just how significant the increase in Amazon's revenues was next week, and there has already been indication that the increase is not as great as the market has anticipated, let alone priced into the stock. We'll also learn yet again (and what cannot continue to be dismissed as insignificant indefinitely) that Amazon loses more money each quarter and has no realistic plan for turning this situation around. Second, Amazon faces the very real possibility of showing a sequential drop in revenue in the next two or three quarters. Unlike their practice of hiding fulfillment costs in other line items, they cannot possibly contort their numbers to disguise the fact that their business is seasonal and that revenue growth cannot be sustained on a sequential basis. AMZN is resting on its long-term uptrend line. I'm looking for it to break below that trendline sometime next week when it reports numbers that will turn out to be less than spectacular and will challenge even the most imaginative AMZN sell-side analyst to find rationalization for AMZN's absurd market valuation. Beyond that, I don't see anything similar to last fall's e-commerce hypefest to keep the stock price from continuing downward toward a more reasonable level. - Peter B