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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (14387)	1/16/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: X-Ray Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

The split is currently anticipated in the price. Whisper numbers are significanlty above consensus, most likely will just be met, also built into the price. I still expect a bit of a runnup before announcements, and a fall back the following day. JMO, we shall see.

To: J. P. who wrote (14387)	1/16/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Jake0302	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

nice job on those jan 120s. i sold my jan145s, but for 2 a contract instead of the 4+ a contract i could have got. what a difference 20 minutes makes! i should have known the spike at the close would be huge. not a big deal, as i still hold feb and apr contracts from which to benefit next week. you stated that you would hold your feb calls over the announcement IF the number was a big blowout and/or IF they announced a split. my question is: how long will you hold them? what are your indicators, either in MSFT or the market (ie, a NASDAQ target number like 2575) that we have hit a peak?

To: J. P. who wrote (14387)	1/16/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

JP, The problem with holding the Feb 150s past earnings is that if they don't announce a split and come in at the whisper number---the premium is going to be lost. That is why I am hoping for at LEAST a $5 run up Tuesday, which I think is going to happen (expecting $8 again). It may not be worth holding on to the Feb 150s under such a scenario. That whisper number could be between 60 to 63 cents depending on the run up we get on Tuesday (I personally don't care for whisper numbers). I think their "real" earnings are going to be a blow out. However, if they are not, I expect to see a big increase in the unearned revenue account (currently at 3.1MIL). Either way, we will know what they really made. This is another reason why the whisper number does not really matter. I am expecting big numbers but will probably hold stock going into earnings and not options (maybe I will keep a few April calls).