To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (2764 ) 1/16/1999 5:45:00 PM From: Jorge Respond to of 41369
Chuzz...That's hysterical...No, actually I see your tongue in cheek...This Industry will be growing whether some (are there actually any out there?) people think it will or not... Here's a lengthy clip from Keith Benjamin, of BancBoston Robertson Stephens, Weekly Web Report I got on Friday 1-15-99...Please excuse me if it's already been posted.... ***************************************** <<AOL: AOL announced a broadband deal with Bell Atlantic this week, under which the two companies will market a DSL service offering to consumers in Bell Atlantic's service areas. Bell Atlantic will provide the high-speed connectivity and AOL will provide the content. AOL will bill the customer and pay a fee to Bell Atlantic. The service is expected to cost consumers around $40 per month for unlimited access, which we find consistent with most cable broadband consumer offerings, as compared with standard AOL dial-up service for $21.95 per month for unlimited access. Financial terms weren't disclosed, but we believe that the economics for AOL will be at least as good as the ‘bring-your-own access' plan, implying $10 per member per month that only needs to cover marketing and other operating expenses, leaving the rest to fall to the bottom line. We believe $10 is the floor, with the potential for more depending on the volume of subscribers AOL brings to the deal. The structure of the deal should be similar to AOL's relationship with Worldcom, where AOL outsources access and focuses on content. Bell Atlantic plans to roll out the DSL service rapidly, passing 7.5M homes by the end of 1999 and 14M by the end of 2000. We are surprised by the size of this commitment from Bell Atlantic, and believe it bodes well for the success of the rollout. We believe this is the first of several broadband deals to be announced, with other DSL and cable agreements on the near-term horizon. This and future broadband deals allow AOL to offer members a better service, with more revenue per member, while keeping the cost per member fixed relative to usage, unlike the current model where AOL's cost of services varies directly with minutes of usage per member. While we are leaving our estimates unchanged, we expect broadband deals in general will aid in member growth while improving the company's business model by increasing gross margins. Regarding AOL's core business, we believe the December-quarter, to be reported on January 27, will be the strongest in AOL's history across all metrics. If we had to own just one Internet stock, it would continue to be AOL. We believe this is the first of several broadband deals to be announced over the next year, providing a steady flow of news to help investors gain confidence that the business can grow into the stock's valuation.>> ******************************* Regards, George