To: Susan G who wrote (890 ) 1/16/1999 9:39:00 PM From: B. A. Marlow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 28311
To Susan G. (and Shareholders): You want "Opinions?" 1) Of course you can make $15,000, probably much more! (And it looks like you're well on your way.) Didn't feel it appropriate to disclose the newbie's screen name or thread, but it's true and can be documented. There's one more point to this story: "luck" was not involved. The play was a matter of knowledge and skill. It could not have been accomplished by a newbie (or, for that matter, by most experienced investors) without SI. In my experience, the key to finding "real help with honest intentions" is merely to *ask* for it. There are probably up to 100 SI lurkers for every post. Many of the lurkers are SI members, but many, many more are future members. (Believe it or not, after lurking myself for a couple of months, I joined just to answer a question. Couldn't resist!) You ask questions, you get answers. Amazing. 2) YHOO appears not to offer "owned and operated" subscription services, but does have a ton of e-commerce initiatives. Its message board system is crudely designed and disappointing in practice. 3) How do you figure SI's subscription income will stop? Let's consider some facts. Not sure how many "lifers" are now signed up, but I can tell you this: Any way you look at it, the current numbers are a drop in the bucket! As far as I'm concerned, SI's $200 up-front subscription charge is the greatest cash cow ever created on the Net. It's in the same league as Berkshire-Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) business model and works like insurance, only better (no "claims"). GNET has the use of the money in advance (adds to cash flow and creates "unearned" revenue), while the marginal cost of "delivering" the marginal subscription is nearly zero. Every new group of 5,000 lifers raises $1mm in interest-free "loans" for GNET, a fabulous ratio. And guess what? The loans are never repaid! At some point though, it might be in SI's best interest to raise the price or close off the $200 lifetime deal. I'm quite sure people are willing to pay $500 or more for this service. (Say, $39 charged to your credit card monthly for 13 months. Are you with me, Russell? ) Here's what we have here: A better business model than *anyone* else has on the Net, including AMZN, AOL, DELL, MSFT and YHOO. The only limitation is how fast GNET can ramp up the subscriber numbers. Clearly, they're still small. And because the subscribers are "sticky," GNET can exploit every merchandising opportunity ever conceived. As a shareholder, you get everything else GNET is doing for *free*! This past week, one lonely analyst apparently figured it out. 4) Don't sell anything on earnings unless you fancy yourself a trader. Market timing is a tough game; leave it to jockeys. In general, sell only when there's something *better* to buy. A leading indicator and proxy for SI's (and StockSite's) future prospects is the explosive rise of online trading (25-30 percent of "retail" activity, and climbing). It's now a hockey-stick growth curve. And here's an eye-opener. This past week, the market cap of E*Trade (EGRP) passed that of PaineWebber (NYSE: PWJ), a classic, old line, bricks-and-mortar firm with 6,600+ brokers. What this tells you is that GNET is on the verge of parabolic growth. In short, GNET is a "keeper." 5) To conclude, a smaller point. Just realized Russ Horowitz is a fellow alumnus of Columbia. No wonder he knows what he's doing! BAM