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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SpongeBrain who wrote (25465)	1/16/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Magnatizer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79326

Sponge Well, there were many TA indicators which could have told you to get out in June - August time frame... Doug called the top and got out in late June. P&Fers called the top and got out in same time frame. Magnets showed where the top would likely be on a actual number basis. You could have used moving average crossovers, 13 day RSI read, P&F charts, long term stochs, market internals, AD lines... The list would be quite long. If I may offer a suggestion. Instead of asking for what TA would have worked to get you in and out why not take up TA yourself. There are many forms, some easy some complicated. All of them seem to have a certain amount of predictive value if properly applied. Doug gives seminars which are quite eye opening. P&Fers have seminars. John Bollinger gives seminars... And, anyone who has a sponge for a brain is welcome on the 56 thread. We could always use a photographic memory to keep us humble. ;0) ht david

To: SpongeBrain who wrote (25465)	1/16/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: bdog	Respond to of 79326

SpongeBrain, man, I likem callsign! Welcome and get your brain into a 56 roundtable party... I like what you say in your profile about coolage and mutuals... dude! that's what I said when I started... I would rather loose $ at stocks than have somebody else have the fun....>g< sponge up... elder's book is good, doug is good, david j is good, milesov is good, lots of guys on the ta threads here are good... I'm just a dog... bdog

To: SpongeBrain who wrote (25465)	3/7/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 79326

You should focus the analysis on your funds and not the market. In general, if they're decent funds, they should track the market anyways. If they're not decent funds and start to perform poorly, your analysis should tell you to move your money out of the funds. This should in most cases get you out of the market at a time of market risk, not just fund underperformance (unless you're in a sector fund). Once out, you can reassess whether to purchase the same fund(s) or use different fund(s) when your analysis tells you that the funds may be turning up. You probably should use several different perspectives in your analysis. One longer term perspective should tell you whether the fund is in a high or low risk relative to its historical trend, such as the 200-day moving average. You might restrict making purchases when the fund is more than 5% above the 200-day moving average. One will also notice that most funds and market averages stay above the 50-day moving average for the duration of a good run of 3 to 6 months. In addition, the 50-day moving average tends to converge toward the 200-day moving average by the end of a correction. One would next need a tool for determining whether the intermediate-term trend or momentum was improving or deteriorating, i.e., to make buy or sell decisions. You could use moving average systems, such as the moving average crossovers, double moving average crossovers, or MACD . Most of the other technical tools can't be used with daily fund data since funds don't have high and low prices reported nor do they have associated volume. Common moving averages used are 21-day, 30-day, 40-day, 50-day, and 65-day. Common double moving averages used are 5/20 day moving averages, 5/35 day, and 10/40 moving averages. The other possible avenue for analyzing your funds is to examine each market cycle when the market rallies and then sells-offs, which occurs about at least once a year, commonly on a 9-month interval. Evaluate the funds you're interested for their performance for how well they perform in the up-part of the cycle and how much they go down in the down-part. Calculate minimum, maximum, and average performance for these up cycles. You will then be able to set up reasonable expectations for how much you might expect in a run. It's not uncommon for funds to go up from 25-40 percent in an up period. Once a fund enters this region of expected performance, you could set up strategies for protecting your position.