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To: SAMOA1 who wrote (5930)	1/17/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Annette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8307

The talk on the Tokyo Joe thread is that the Market Makers(all of them) will be dropping the margins on internet stocks...is this bad? Message 7328453

To: SAMOA1 who wrote (5930)	1/17/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: Annette	Respond to of 8307

Message 7329808 what he heard on a radio show....

To: SAMOA1 who wrote (5930)	1/18/1999 6:47:00 AM
From: MarkM	Respond to of 8307

Off-topic. SAMOA1: You asked for an analysis of AMZN. I don't follow it, but took a quick look. Here's the way I see it: 1) All Internet stocks have been pulling back for about a week. This has happened many times before, and then they come back stronger. 2) Nothing appears strange in AMZN chart. Usually sharp rises are accompanied by sharp pullbacks to a new and higher support, following which it is a good time to buy. 3) Recent session closes show $110 to be strong support, and $140 to be 'OK' support. However, note that the 10-session Bollinger band low side is 110 as well. Nice convergence on two extremely strong indicators. But there is yet a third strong indicator homing in on 110, the 50-day moving average, (currently at 100). It will be 110 within 2 weeks, so that even if AMZN falls slightly over the next 5 to 10 sessions, it will then have a remarkably strong 3-way convergence of top-notch supports. I see 110 as very strong support. 4) Historically AMZN trades about 20% above the 50MA at it's lows, then moves to about 50-100% above the 50MA at its highs. When AMZN recently dropped to 125 you will find this to be 25% above the 50-MA (which was at 100). This roughly fulfills past history. But note the convergence of another indicator. Often when a stock has a remarkable run-up, then falls just as fast, the previous high (that was just broken) becomes new support. That high was 120. No wonder then that AMZN bounced off 120 (went down to 125) considering the new support at 120 and fact that it was approx 20% (actually 25%) above the 50-MA. This makes new support at 125. 4) The last two run-ups have been preceded by 10-session blues. Why 10 sessions? I have my own theory. Most TA-people use a 10-session, 2 standard deviation Bollinger band. When a stock jumps to a new, higher level, it is only after about 10 sessions that the new sky-rocketing highs start to fall off the calculation. This means that without a move to the upside, the centerline of the Bollinger band will move down immediately. Therefore, since all other moving averages are on the way up, it makes sense to keep the price moving on the same uptrend, which calls for a spike in the price. Based on this, I would say AMZN is likely to have about 5 or 6 more sessions of the blues. 6) Last two run-ups were preceded by a strong narrowing of the Bollinger bands. This is just happening now, but won't be complete for another 5 or 6 sessions. 7) Finally, we now see a period of lower highs and higher lows. This I don't know how to read. If we have unchanging highs, but higher lows, then I would expect a break upwards. If lower highs, but unchanging lows, then I would see a break downwards when they converge. But I've seen this pattern of lower highs and higher lows before and haven't homed in on what it means. All I can say is that when it converges, the stock will then make a definitive trend move up or down. And with internet stocks it's best to assume up! 8) My conclusion: (PS: I don't own AMZN and never have). I see a continued basing period for about 5 to 6 sessions in the 130 to 145 area, after which AMZN would start to move up again. I see strong support has now formed at 125. This is my lotto-scientific-Irishsweepstakes opinion, for whatever it's worth. I know nothing about AMZN except it is an internet stock that sells books and makes people lots of money in the market.