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Technology Stocks : Data Broadcasting Corp. (DBCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KW Wingman who wrote (4124)	1/17/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5102

One thing a lot of people seem to be assuming, unwarrentedly IMHO, is that MKTW's closing value of $97 is a result of totally natural demand for the stock, and as such, has no downside. In practice, though, I think you will find that the vast majority of the buying demand for MKTW was from arbitragers, meaning, in this case, people who were buying MKTW and at the same time short selling DBCC, to take advantage of the disparity between their relative market valuations. Think about it: Net IPOs often double, even a triple is not out of the realm of possibility, but a five-and-a-half bagger? So now, people are going to be unwinding positions. True, this does mean some covering on DBCC, but it also means MKTW will be sold off. IMHO these forces will tend to cancel each other out in the short term. As for tomorrow: unfortunately, people have been trained to leap first and look later when someone whispers the word "Internet". Given the intensely strong feeling by the longs here that MKTW's IPO would instantly bring wealth upon wealth to DBCC's shareholders, it seems fair to assume that a considerable number of people (I am thinking people such as this unfortunate: #reply-7300533) may have bet too heavily on it, and are having their margin calls processed over this weekend. That means some forced selling Tuesday morning, and a free covering opportunity for the shorts. Maybe not $12-15 low (then again, has not Anthony had this one pegged so far?), but I think below $20 is quite likely.

To: KW Wingman who wrote (4124)	1/18/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: moby_dick	Respond to of 5102

Wingman: >>you wrote: What's up for Tuesday when the market reopens? At its current price of $97.50, MKTW implies a price of no more than around $13.50 to $14 per share for Data Broadcasting. With DBCC having closed at $21.75, there's obviously more fireworks to come. Stay Tuned.<< Note, that quote came from an article at the MSNBC site - not an original from me. I personally covered just before the close on Friday because I was antsy about holding on to the position over a long weekend. That said - there are many here who believe there is still quite a downside left for DBCC - at least to low teens and maybe single digits. I usually do not hang around to fight for the last few points in these opportunities. Your feeling that there could be a run-up due to short covering in the next few days makes a helluva lot of sense. The same thing happened with MALL and its back-door IPO opp with UBID. However, I think it took several days for MALL to shake off the down-slide before it recovered and it continued to drift downward inthe process. My own personal opinion is that DBCC will drop more on Tuesday to the $17-$19 range and continue to drift down to $15 + or - $2. After that, we may have a technical bounce back into the $20s. JMHO though. Good luck in whatever you decide. Moby.