JEB,, Market might go up in anticipation of possibility that Mr.Greendpan might lower the rates again , as he is scheduled to speak at the house on Wednesday,,,, in order to help out Brazil and China,, and there is a strong possibility in that , if you remember there was a talk of another rate cut in January ,,, at same time ,, FED had the chance to make a premptive strike on Brazil ,, 2 weeks ago as I am sure they were fully aware of the Brazillian situation,, so perhaps there will not be a rate cut and the market has assumed the devaluation defacto,, regardless the general consensus is the slowing growth in 1999 is in the cards ,, with perhaps exception of technology,, and internets are certainly a large part of this new industry,, however, I as well as many readers here will agree that a speculative bubble has grown too large and that a dose of reality is in order for the whole sector to be valued more realistically,, this I believe will be welcomed not only by the general public and policy makers , but also welcomed by the concerned companies managements ,,
Also China is a growing concern for me,, as their debts surmount,, government still subsides failing industries,, retraction on the loan guarantee ,, decreasing surplus ,, as other Asian nations started to borrow again ,,
As for the cyclical January effet,, it is over,, every year,, this time we go into seasonal doldrum where techs are sold off slowly ,, and get ready for April rally or pre - summer rally ,,
Next week we have earnings by financial institutions and brokerage houses, which will be a measure of the growth in that sector and could cause extreme volatility in the market ,, as it's always the financials and transports that will lead the market,,
As for the nets ,, analysts all agree that a real dose of fair valuation will be reached on internet stocks in February..
We will also see.. large US companies like Boeing getting their butts whipped by AirBus , Kodak by Fuji,, there is a global price war going on ,.,.,. narrower margins ,,, larger lay offs,, more consolidations ,, survival of the fittest in this frickle and harsh investor sentiment ,,,,
Regardless of the market ,, as you know Societe Anonyme ,,we are surfers ,, we have surfed,, Malibu ,, North Shore off Oahu ,, we surfed ,, off North Australia, Columbia River gorge ,, we surf the sector and momentum stocks .. stay away from Unabombers and take our profit ,, either long or short..
I see a great 1999 .. with more emphasis on short side this year,,
Good luck JEB..
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