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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bindusagar Reddy who wrote (20879)	1/17/1999 11:59:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

BR, >>>It is the individual investors and institutions who don't realize the importance of ASND/LU combo and potential threat of CSCO getting ROUTED OUT of the ROUTERS.<<< Cisco invented the router, didn't they? Besides that, I imagine they may have a wee bit of experience that may lend to their ability to hold onto the vast majority of the business. Your future shock posts remind me of the time when IBM, Motorola and Apple were going to destroy Intel with the Power PC. Didn't quite happen. Those companies, and Lucent/Ascend are just not as nimble and kick ass as Cisco and Intel. Tony

To: Bindusagar Reddy who wrote (20879)	1/17/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: Frank Sheridan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Why are people taking the position that either CSCO or LU is going to win in the telecom wars? The reality is that BOTH companies are probably going to still be around in twenty years, along with Siemens and Northern Telecom. LU will still sell telecom equipment (along with a lot of other stuff), and CSCO will also sell into the telecom market. However, I see a great deal of growth in the overall telecom market over the next decade, mostly because of digital communications, and I see CSCO doing a better job of exploiting this overall growth trend. Do I think that CSCO is going to take away sales from LU? Yes. Will LU go out of business because of CSCO? No. Even if LU ends up taking an ever shrinking piece of the pie, the pie is question is enormous and growing like a weed. Add customer loyalty and a "nobody ever lost their job buying ATT equipment" mentality to the equation and the arguments for LU surviving and prospering seem powerful indeed. But, again, I personally feel that CSCO is going to do a better overall job of adapting and selling to this fast growing and changing marketplace. As far as CSCO being pushed out of the router business, well, never say never, but their current market share would seem to make that a very unlikely prospect indeed. Regards

To: Bindusagar Reddy who wrote (20879)	1/21/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Actually, you are quite wrong. Uninformed investors vastly overestimate the value of the LU-ASND merger, ignoring the realty in favor irrational exuberance. That will pass as eventuality becomes manifest. Read today's "Heard on the Street". WSJ (page C1) has a great article on how LU has greatly padded its reported earnings in two ways: !) "Investors have paid scant attention to the extent that Lucent's earnings have come, not from selling telecommunications equipment, but from the effect of the great bull market on company pension funds". That makes LU stock far more expensive than people like you realize. 2) Lucent has used other aggressive accounting techniques which are very controversial, such as avoiding writing off "goodwill" when making purchases. Instead of that, which would reduce future earnings, LU takes them as as one-time "charges". Finally, the LU Ascend combo will be seen far less favorably when it is realized how much overlap exists between the two and how poorly their corporate cultures will mesh. Heck, even the most exuberant LU bull must concede that Cisco will grow at least 50% faster than the LU-Descend combo and that LU has made what all can see is a classic defensive maneuver against its much better run and far more formidable rival, our beloved Cisco . You just gotta love the WSJ. interactive.wsj.com