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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27768)	1/17/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

BB, An interesting set of conjecture. About all we can say is that none of us knows precisely what will trigger the next spurt up, or the next spurt down. Clearly, huge liquidity inflows to the market and especially to this sector, coupled with unprecedented (in our generation at least) low inflation, low interest rates, high employment, high productivity growth rates, and exceptionally high EVAs (per AJC)for US companies contribute to upward pressures. If the equipment industry recovers for any of the reasons stated in earlier posts, that's a bonus. You asked, " Will a potential senate IMPEACHMENT be the catalyst???. Imagine the market's behaviour after the senate decides NOT to confirm the impeachment. MMM HMMMmmmmmmmmm? ;-) One way or the other, we'll soon know. Ian. P.S. If anyone missed AJC's talk, I have all of it in "machine-hearable" form. If anyone wants it, it's in 3 parts: 1. AJC's 4 points supporting Supertanker America Economic outlook 2. AJC's discussion of EVA and US vs Japan 3. Q&A with responses from Fed Gov Parry and AJC. Just tell me what Email address you want it sent to; what parts of the talk you would like. I'll email them along with the URL where you can get the free player/recorder. Ian.

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27768)	3/1/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

To quote you on Jan 17 - "At some point there will be profit taking from this market "exhuberence" and the semi's will respond accordingly, as usual the question is "WHEN?". IMO, investors should be very cautious, the markets have been ahead of the "typical" time cycle by about 6 weeks since July of '98. If historical precedence is of any value, the markets have tended to sell off in mid late Feb time frame going into late winter/early spring. Advance that by 6 weeks and we are very nearly at that point, IMO. All we need is a valid reason to take profits and a 10-15% correction will ensue. Right again sir. What now? t d