To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35277 ) 1/17/1999 3:00:00 PM From: SargeK Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
1999 - 2000 EIA Highlight ///Extracts/// World Oil Prices Expected to Rise From Low December Levels The average price of imported crude for U.S. refiners (an indicator of world oil prices) is expected to climb from the estimated December level of about $9.25 per barrel to be about $13 per barrel by the end of 1999. The average price is expected to move above $14 per barrel by the end of 2000. Despite these increases, prices would remain low by historical standards. Despite a slowing economy, U.S. petroleum demand growth is expected to increase in 1999 by a robust 540,000 barrels per day, or 2.9 percent (Table 5) . Much of this growth is attributed to 1) increased demand for heating fuel and other weather-sensitive products resulting from an assumed return to normal weather patterns and 2) continued growth in transportation demand. In 2000, total demand is projected to increase an additional 275,000 barrels per day, or 1.4 percent. That moderation in growth assumes unchanged weather patterns from those of the previous year and a moderation in overall economic growth. Figure 19. U.S. Crude Oil Production New production from Federal offshore oil slowed the steady decline of domestic crude oil supply in 1998. But, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico during September prompted the precautionary shutdown of production from offshore wells. September 1998 domestic crude oil production is now estimated to be about 6.07 million barrels per day, about 270,000 barrels per day below what was expected for the month. This dip in production lowers the projected 1998 average domestic crude oil production to 6.36 million barrels per day, a decline of 1.4 percent from the 1997 average (Figure 19). A similar rate of decline is expected in 1999, followed by an acceleration to a decline rate of almost 4 percent in 2000 as expanded development of oil resources suffers from persistently low prices. Despite the projected acceleration in demand growth in 1999 (due mostly to weather assumptions) and declines in domestic production, increases in net imports of petroleum in 1999 should be limited because of the expected reduction in inventories during the year. We now estimate that about 50 percent of total U.S. petroleum demand was met by net imports in 1998. That percentage is expected to hold in 1999 as well if, as we assume, domestic inventories are reduced to more normal levels. Import dependence would likely grow to the 52-percent range in 2000 if the expected acceleration in the decline rate for domestic oil production occurs and normal weather conditions along with modest economic growth continues. Note: Not perfect but it beats some of the hype !!! K