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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sawtooth who wrote (5586)	1/17/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

LU is a tock that is likely to appear and stay overvalued because it was an ATT spinoff. This means every little old lady in the world owns it and likes the way it goes up. So, their friendly Merril Lynch Broker will always recommend it for a nice comission. Jim

To: Sawtooth who wrote (5586)	1/17/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: Digitom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Tim, LU has a PE of approximately 52 times projected '99 earnings-- useing to StockSelector's figures. It does look a little scary when looking at trailing earnings. It really helps to be a reletivist when looking at today's market, however, LU is being rewarded with a high valuation because it has not disappointed in the past. In digitom's depraved opinion, this merger will really test this companies ability to grow and absorb it's market.

To: Sawtooth who wrote (5586)	1/17/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: lkj	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Assuming all goes well, Lucent may double its revenue in the next 3 years with improved profit margin in the low teens. The resulting earning would be between $7 to $8 billion dollars. A PE in the 30's might be reasonable. That yields to a market cap between $210 to $320 Billion dollars. The current combined LU/ASND market cap is $160 Billion. So we could see Lucent double in the next 3 years. But I think telecommunications growth will probably be higher in 3 years than now. Lucent may very well continue having a 50's PE. In this case, Lucent could triple in the next 3 years. I guess the conclusion is that Lucent is not over priced. It should outperform the market in the next few years. Lucent may split soon, and the stock may run up to $100 quickly. If this happens too quickly, LU may be over stretched. So I hope that Lucent doesn't split until the second half of this year.