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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35284)	1/17/1999 4:45:00 PM
From: articwarrior	Respond to of 95453

Valuation of the sector is at historic lows but pay attention to the debt ratios of these companies. Yes earnings this go round will be horrible but I believe the market has it factored in already. If the debt ratio goes above 50% get out quick. On the other hand if we were in a steady climb I would do the opposite based upon why the debt was created. All ears will be on the next round of talks from OPEC and a short-term money play for day traders. Those long term and accumulating (like myself) enjoy the ride. Those who believe oil will sell for 5 dollars a barrel take another Prozac and buy Yahoo at 600; you will wake up sooner or later. To John...Sorry you lost so much on this sector a while back but understanding the nature of the beast help to ride it once again. The real question is how limited is OIL as a resource and even with alternative energy sources oil is used in so many products that there will always be a demand until the resource is depleted. Estimates from the US Energy commission in a 1997 study of oil concluded that within the decade oil reserves in the US will become depleted. Oh yea the Alaska reserve was thought to be a big as the North Slope. Latest finds by DOE are it isn't 1/4 what North Slope was. With a depletable commodity that has such huge demand do you really think that a long-term investor (3- 5 years) can go wrong at these low prices? I think not.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35284)	1/17/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Respond to of 95453

I am obsessed with the long term charts because the message is that there's no mercy for this sector. What horrible long term investments. If an investor can successfully trade and time the peaks and valleys there's some money to be made. What scares the hell out of me with this sector is there's the real possibility that I could take a long position and be stuck with dead money for years. On the 20 yr SLB chart there are seven year periods where the stock moves in an extremely tight trading range. In the meantime, you could have owned PFE or GE. As you know, I've got quite an imagination. Even I can't see how we're going to get $18 oil for six consecutive months or more during the next several years. Maybe a trader can scalp the trading range points. But there are other stocks that offer more consistent earnings growth and performance.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35284)	1/17/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, Good summation of what I think is the majority view on this thread. The problem, I believe is one of perspective. If an individual is looking to buy stock today, and doubling tomorrow, this sector is not the place. Most on this thread are looking to buy in at the bottom of a cyclical turn around, that will pay handsomely, OVER TIME. We realize that for now all we are going to hear is about cutbacks and decreased earnings. To those looking for a quick profit, it ain't going to happen, although there are a number who intend to trade during the manic depressive swings that are sure to occur during the next year or so. Most recognize, as you do, that the bad news we are hearing today is the result of low prices, not the cause. In fact they mark the initial steps that will lead to the next cyclical recovery. "The best cure for low oil prices, is low oil prices." So what we have is a failure to establish a common term of reference. Those who want to point out what we all know, and who see this as nothing but doom and gloom should really put their money where they feel more comfortable. Most on the thread realize, from our longer term prospective, that these things will lead to the recovery, and much larger than average returns. If we could read the future, we would buy in the day before the recovery, but we can't, so we buy in and wait it out. History is on our side. Mike from La.