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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (46400)	1/18/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571702

RE:"Jim, >>>Problem with FEB vs now is that Intel has lucked out. A couple months with a K6-2 450 and a K6-3 before the Katmai would have really helped...<<< Some would call it skill instead of luck. I mean if you execute near flawlessly all the time, talking about Intel's manufacturing now, how can you call it luck? BTW, you're sounding more and more the INTELligent analyst lately (except for that luck call). <GG>"... ---- I think you kind of missed my point. The luck really had nothing to do with Intel. It had to do with AMDs bad luck. AMD was rolling the dice (die) and it was coming up sevens while they ramped up the .25u process. They rolled them all the way up to 350MHz. Then they put all their money on the CXT core pushing the speeds to 400MHz, first couple of rolls showed promise but then the luck ran out, they rolled snake eyes. With a bit of luck they would have been selling the K6-2-450 and K6-3 right now. Anyone with half a brain could have realized Intel was going to push the Celeron to 400MHz sooner than expected. After all, all they had to do is change the clock multiplier. AMD had the perfect counter with the K6-2-450. But AMD couldn't do it and Intel got a reprieve. AMD had promised a ton of 400s but despite doing their best and sacrificing wafer real estate to fill orders, Intel was right there and filled the gaps with the Celeron 366 and 400. I see this as a major set back for AMD, at least short term. Now Intel has "lucked into" more time to get the Pentium III out there which will help Intel segment the market and maintain profit margins. As it was the Celeron 400 was a serious encroachment on Pentium II territory. Had the ramp to 450MHz and the K6-3 gone perfectly, AMD would have been in a position to put a serious hurt on Intel. Now we must wait to see if AMD can ramp the K7 and who gets to .18u when. Jim