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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennyv who wrote (4515)	1/17/1999 10:55:00 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

and assuming that there are 2.25M shares in the IPO dennyv, I assume you implied 2.25 MM shares offered to the public but that is not what you should use in your calculations. Instead, use outstanding shares after the IPO (probably about 10 MM shares). Regards, Tom

To: dennyv who wrote (4515)	1/17/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: jeer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

i think your numbers look right on. factors that we arent able to put in the equation, of course, are the height of the run-ups in either stok, the duration of sustainability of prices, and the rate of descent from, oh, say $150 for net radio, down to the more logical 60-80 range. the real question is whether NAVR will be evaluated in a technical fashion, ie, based on its ownership %, or soem other factors. im thinking NAVR will behave very much like DBCC did, mostly because some very big money will be going after the extra profits that can be had as netradio goes to the mid-hundreds. like most things, this wont be easy money for many, due to the timing, fast movements in both stocks, and different risk tolerances. with NAVR being a notorious daytrading stock, the action is bound to be fierce for a few days, then settle down a bit. and then be back after a few weeks. ill be happy to get a double out of NAVR from its current level, and even that may only be availble in a very short window of time, and perhaps not even on the day the ipo is released, IMO. good luck to everyone!!

To: dennyv who wrote (4515)	1/18/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Since we don't know anything about the number of shares involved yet, it probably makes more sense to speculate on market cap for now. NAVR currently has a market cap of $242 million. About 2/3 of this value has been added by the IPO speculation, meaning that NAVR's "intrinsic" value is about $80 million and its "IPO value" is about $160 million. NAVR will own 40-50% of NetRadio after the IPO: so, to sustain NAVR's current price levels, NetRadio's market cap would have to hit $320-400 million. (If you then go on to assume 10 milion shares outstanding for NetRadio, you get $32-40 per share to maintain NAVR's current $18.) For comparison's sake, it's worth noting that BCST's market cap has ranged from $560 million to $4.95 billion since its IPO. BCST has a current market cap of $2.39 billion. On its IPO day, BCST closed with a market cap of $1.07 billion, hitting an intraday high of $1.27 billion. This is rough, as it doesn't account for accounting and tax specifics that may make adjustments necessary. But this line of calculation is what I'm using to try to "value" the NAVR/NetRadio play right now.

To: dennyv who wrote (4515)	1/18/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: bodie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Here are my calculations. 10M / 13.5M = 74% If NetRadio issues 10M shares and NAVR retains 100% ownership then one share of NAVR is worth 74% of one share of Net Radio, or 1 share of NAVR = 1.35 shares of NetRadio. Half of 74% = 37% If NetRadio issues 10M shares and NAVR retains 50% ownership then one share of NAVR is worth 37% of one share of NetRadio, or 1 share of NAVR = 2.7 shares of NetRadio. Assume NAVR runs up to $40, and then subtract the $5 that it was already trading at, prior to IPO. $35 * 2.7 = $94.5. NetRadio needs to run up to about $94.50, which IMO is attainable. msnbc.com