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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Sterner who wrote (6603)	1/18/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: Thomas Sterner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

Modified Dollar Cost Averaging Scott, I seem to remember that you once posted your strategy for getting back in mutual funds and called it modified dollar cost averaging or something like that. In the possibly unlikely event I'm remembering correctly, could you repost this? Great picture btw. Tom

To: Thomas Sterner who wrote (6603)	1/18/1999 7:19:00 AM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Mutual Funds I have about 40 funds in my database that I analyse - this generally changes on a monthly basis, adding those that are performing well and killing off the dogs. I am getting ready to change that list again, so if a few people have some they would like me to add, let me know. The ones I currently follow are below - most of the bottom 10 (except the last two) will be removed however: SYMBOL NAME CHANGE % CHANGE % since 10/8/98 since 1/11/99 UOPIX ProFunds Ult OTC 166.07% -9.37% UOPSX ProFunds OTC - Svc 165.41% -9.42% MNNAX Munder Fund 139.07% -6.05% DTGRX Dreyfus Gr & Val 101.36% -2.58% FSPTX Fidelity Select Tech 92.86% 1.17% POTCX Potomac OTC Plus 87.21% -5.92% FDCPX Fidelity Sel Computer 81.30% 0.00% VHCOX Vanguard Capital Opp 52.44% -0.75% JAVLX Janus Twenty 50.75% -4.52% BESLX Berger Fund 45.87% -1.48% VPMCX Vanguard PrimeCap 41.07% -3.89% VEXPX Vanguard Explorer 40.28% -2.42% VMCAX Vanguard TM Cap App 38.71% -4.15% FMAGX Fidelity Magellan 38.27% -4.13% VIMSX Vanguard Mid Cap 37.73% -2.62% VHAGX Vanguard Agg Growth 34.72% -3.25% FCNTX Contrafund 29.89% -0.48% VIGRX Vanguard Growth 29.43% -3.67% NAESX Vanguard Sml Cap Index 27.64% -3.08% VISVX Vanguard Sm Cap Value 27.48% -3.26% VTGIX Vanguard TM Gro&Inc 26.87% -4.06% FUSEX Spartan US Equity Index 26.77% -4.10% BIGRX Benham Income & Growth 26.52% -1.92% INNDX American Exp New Dim 26.29% -4.14% VINIX Vanguard Inst Index 26.18% -4.08% VWUSX Vanguard US Growth 25.95% -3.99% VFINX Vanguard Index 500 25.94% -4.09% FDGRX Fidelity Growth Co 25.67% -3.20% VEURX Vanguard Euro Fund 25.44% -3.66% FGRIX Fidelity Growth&Income 24.67% -1.24% VGHCX Vanguard Health Group 20.66% -1.59% NBGEX Neuberger&Berman Gen 16.75% -3.24% PGRWX Putnam Growth & Income 14.56% -2.22% INPRX American Express Prog 7.05% -3.50% FASGX ASSET MANAGER GROWTH 5.77% -1.15% IEVAX IDS Equity Value 5.73% -4.39% FASMX Fidelity Asset Manager 1.04% -0.68% VWELX Vanguard Wellington 0.61% -1.07% WWIFX Internet Index Fund 0.00% 12.84% WWWFX WWW Internet Fund 0.00% -7.46% TOT/AVG 43.68% -3.00%

To: Thomas Sterner who wrote (6603)	1/18/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Respond to of 43080

>>To my aging eyes, I think the MACD chart looks most like August 1997. My humble interpretation is that we would move sideways with a very slight uptrend for maybe 5 months. On the other hand, the uptrend from October until now is much steeper than the uptrend up to August 1997. << Well S&P is over valued by 15% or so now, I would expect either the bonds to drop 15% or the S&P to drop 15% or the bonds to gain 15% and the s&P to stay where it is, or the bonds to gain 7 1/2 % and the s&P to drop 7 1/2% or the bonds to stay where it is and the s&p to stay where it is but I doubt the arbs will allow that for any length of time. But who knows, some pretty darn good arbs are broke now after the LLTC fiasco.