To: David Colvin who wrote (6039 ) 1/18/1999 8:57:00 PM From: Bob B. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10072
Dave, It wasn't the Sony technology I was afraid of - it was their brand-name recognition and marketing capacity. We know that one can make money with inferior technology - Microsoft proved that for all times with MS-DOS. In the next few months, government and corporate contracting officers all over the country will be signing off on purchase orders to obtain supplies for Y2K backups. These contracting officers often buy inferior technology because of their unwillingness to try anything "unproven." They stick to the known brand names for any product even though the product's reputation may be 2-3 years old at the time of purchase, and newer and better is on the market. When these contracting officers think of removable storage, I want Iomega to be the only name that pops into their minds. If Sony has an established product at the time the Y2K purchases are made, I can see the contracting officers preferring Sony to Iomega. With Sony out of the picture, I can't see anyone choosing Imation over Iomega. Many non-technical PC users follow the same logic in their purchases. Brand-name recognition sells, not technical superiority. Sony has the deep pockets needed to rapidly establish brand-name recognition in the removable-storage field. Imation doesn't. Though I'm not yet convinced that we should be playing Taps over the corpse of the HiFD, I do think Iomega has a lock on 1999 - and it's a helluva year to have locked up. Sony's stumble and possible withdrawal means more to Iomega than the SyQuest bankruptcy. It should have more of an effect on the stock price once everyone awakens to what this means. I would imagine that some investors, particularly of the institutional variety, may hold off a month or two to see if Sony can make good on its promises. If the whispers at that point are that Sony is not coming back, expect a major price rise.