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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (11939)	1/18/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Telemarker	Respond to of 22640

Steve, I believe that you are correct - in theory. In practice, I believe that the Arbs should keep this in line with the mathematics. One should check to see if this relationship held true last week, my sense is that it did not. Haven't been keeping up on the babies' prices. Already have been badly burned trying to turn Brazilian equity analysis into a mechanical one. Not much help, I feel. Sorry.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (11939)	1/18/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: Tony van Werkhooven	Respond to of 22640

Steve- Quoted from your post:<It would appear the drop in the real is offsetting the stock gains in Brazil today? If I'm understanding this correctly, if the stock prices hold, and the real recovers somewhat as we see successful congressional votes this week, this by itself should produce gains in the US markets?> Your statement is correct. As the exchange rate improves from 1.52 to 1.45, say, the dollar value increases- try this on your prior calculation of TBH. Tony