To: John Chen who wrote (35286 ) 1/18/1999 12:39:00 PM From: Platter Respond to of 164684
Will Internet Fever Distract the Fed? Special to TheStreet.com 1/18/99 Greed & Fear is not wired, but passing through San Francisco this week amid the Internet stock hysteria forces some observations on the phenomenon. What we have in Internet stocks trading is a seemingly unprecedented event, namely retail investors trading with access to a huge amount of information but absolutely no knowledge. The fact that they are trading Internet stocks via the Internet only adds to the intoxication of this particular mania. The danger is then that the Achilles' heel of this bull market proves to be ordinary Americans' enduring faith in the limitless powers of technology. This may prove to be as naive as the Japanese faith in golf course memberships a decade ago. Whether the Internet bubble proves to be no more than a repeat of similar confined U.S. bubbles of the past (such as the biotechnology stock bubble of the early 1980s) or something more systemic, only time will tell. Still, the fact that three Internet stocks recently each traded more volume than the Tokyo stock exchange that day [never mind the remarkable market capitalizations commanded by Yahoo! ($36.3 billion) and Amazon ($23.4 billion)] suggests that the Federal Reserve must be watching somewhat warily this example of exuberance at its most irrational. The first sentence in the latest Asia Maxima, namely that "It is better to deal with an asset bubble than a destabilized world," must now begin to be questioned somewhat. The fact is that the more Wall Street goes up and the more absurd Internet fever becomes, the more pressure there will be for the Fed to refocus monetary policy on domestic overheated markets rather than on global deflationary pressure. Any confirmation that the Fed had gone into neutral, let alone tightening mode, would be extremely negative for world equity markets, most particularly interest-rate sensitive Hong Kong. Fortunately, the crisis in Brazil has probably delayed any such renewed focus on a Fed rethink of its monetary stance. This means that the Fed is likely to remain broadly accommodative for fear that Brazil spills over into a general Latin American contagion.