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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stiltz1 who wrote (4535)	1/18/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: Byron Xiao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

i see this going up to at least the high fifties on the first go-round, after the IPO announcement; the week of the IPO is anybody's guess. Also you can never predict valuations; at least $10 a share has to be priced in for short covering, for momentum players, speculators and so on. It's anybody's guess; but this is a hot product, a good technology, and it should soar. Please see my previous post on how I arrived at NAVR's valuation. I am almost certain that NAVR will not hit high 50's. Here are my reasons: 1. The timing will be bad. 25-50 inet IPO in the next 30 days will dillute demand. 2. Investors are getting screwed royally by the abundance of the public offering. Most parent companies on spun off 10% of their children's initial offering. This keeps the float on the market low and will create the kind of short squeeze you are talking about because there aren't simply enough shares to short. However, base on what NAVR is saying, their current holding of 85% of Netradio will go down to about 50%. That means they are putting 35% of Netradio in IPO. That's incredibily stupid because it increase the float and allow people to short more easily, and it also decreases the value of NAVR since they are holding 50% of Netradio instead of 75%. This is BAD, BAD, BAD. 3. I have already said in my previous post that in order for NAVR to get to high 30's, Netradio will have to be worth 850M in market cap. To get to high 50's, Netradio has to be worth about 1.5B in market cap. If CDNW is worth 360M, NTKI worth 210M, what makes you think Netradio will be worth 3 times of these 2 companies combine? Nope, I am not hoping for high fifties. There will be a period of crazy daytrader buying mania on this baby, maybe hike it to 30's, but when all the dust are settled, people will see its true valuation and high 50's aren't working out for this puppy. I think $18 now which translate to a $300M market cap for Netradio is quite reasonable.