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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Buckley who wrote (14494)	1/18/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

[But what if the current sales reflect disbelief in the hype?] I can't think of an example where that was true. Do you have something in mind? In software especially, installed base is an important asset, and strong sales mean that asset is growing. I have no examples. That's why this is completely a guess. But I can make a Bayesian argument: 1) As of a year ago, it was a reasonable belief that Microsoft would come out with Windows NT 5 by mid 1999. 2) Companies often delay product purchases if they believe a new version is coming out soon. 3) It is no longer a reasonable belief that Microsoft is coming out with Windows 2000 nee NT 5 by mid 1999. Late 1999 is too late due to Y2K work. 4) Conclusion: Companies which delayed product purchases for Windows 2000 now have no reason to do so. Hence, at least some of the increased sales is due to a lack of faith in Windows 2000.