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Strategies & Market Trends : The Darvas Box Thread - Using the Nicholas Darvas system -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arb who wrote (234)	1/18/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: Dow Beater	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 498

OPINION! I don't like to say this; however, I see any bull rise as a three part entity. It is my opinion that we are currently in the last part of stage two of this bull cycle; and, quite possibly, the beginning part of the last part of this cycle. After all, this run has gone on for about 13 weeks now. I believe the bull is weakening. Most profits are made during the first part of the cycle. In the final cycle, it is hard to make profits. It's almost like stocks are moving by fits and starts. Right now, I think stops should be tightened. Profits, or partial profits, should be taken. The rule is preservation of capital. Good money management will pay off here. How does this effect the Darvas method? Quite frankly, Darvas admitted that his best trading came in bull markets. If I am right, then we will have a harder and harder time eeking out profits going forward. If there's a downturn, that is the best time to lay low and look for strong stocks in strong sectors. They will be the fast movers when the market turns back upward. But, as with all boards, when the market is good, there are plenty of people to post; when the market is bad, posters dry up. I hope that doesn't happen here. There aren't that many posters to begin with. I think the Darvas method can be very successful. No matter what happens, let's stick it out. -- Dow Beater