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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eabDad who wrote (42356)	1/18/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: PAinvestor	Respond to of 53903

Well, Z, the reason I state this is that Japanese chip sizes at 0.25 micron are as follows: Toshiba 80mm2, Hitachi 75mm2, Mitsubishi Electric 88mm2. NEC had a die size of 100mm2 at 0.28 micron. So you can see my logic if you expand the world to include companies other than MU and Samsung. Die sizes are, in fact, lagging at Korean producers and in the case of Hyundai, some 50% larger than leading Japanese producers at the same density, for LG nearly 40%. A big cost handicap. Regardless, Samsung and MU have already transitioned to 0.22 for the bulk of their output, but not LG & Hyundai. Regardless, the comparison figures you supplied are a little dated for where the leading edge is currently. Whilst on the subject, I would like to reiterate that as a chip producer, one just cannot stop capex for 18-24 months and then expect to come bounding back into into the market as a cost effective competitor, especially with the pace of chip shrinks nowadays. This is the problem that they face currently. LG & Hyundai spent only $100m combined last year on capex and are probably not going to spend much more this year with all the problems surrounding the merger. This is a hit that companies cannot rebound from that quickly. The rest of the DRAM world has aggressively shrunk to 0.22 micron and are looking at ramping up 128meg later on this year and 256meg early in 1999 at 0.18 micron. On the bright side, they will become alot more aware of cost of capital. If they were aware of that from the beginning, we would not have seen the disasters of recent years. As I stated before, I believe you need to reassess your view of output from the Koreans - downwards. BTW, did you have a chance to recheck your wafer start, die size and yield assumptions for the Koreans yet. I'd be interested to discuss in detail...