To: JC Money - President of a Loca who wrote (44279 ) 1/18/1999 5:39:00 PM From: TsioKawe Respond to of 119973
TR - The Sector Strategist By Mr. Chartist January 18, 1998 THE WEEK AHEAD The DJIA ended the week with a weekly dark cloud cover, which also showed a double top. The momentum, during Friday's trading, though, suggests that there may be more rallies ahead instead of disappointment. It depends upon how quickly DJIA bulls can take their average above 9420. A close below 9224 would signal that more serious problems are afoot. The NASDAQ turned in a reverse evening star on the weekly chart, also suggesting we may find another strong rally in our near future. The key resistance level is 2361. A close above that, this week, indicates NASDAQ may yet drive to another record. Primary support stands at 2275 and secondary support can now be found at 2205. The March S&P 500 futures (SPH9) also depict a dark cloud cover on its weekly chart. Support stood at the 9-week EMA support level, although it was penetrated on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We would feel more comfortable if SPH9 closed above 1254. The primary EMA support levels are uptrending, while the primary EMA resistance levels continue to decline, on the 60-minute interval charts. Until there is a crossover of the 9-18-27-48 EMA lines, on the 60-minute interval charts, we are wary of the potential of a sudden downdraft in SPH9. RECOMMENDATIONS It may be wiser to remain on the sidelines, this week, until the previous highs have been eclipsed in such market leaders as INTC, MSFT, IBM, CPQ and DELL. Internet stocks, such as EBAY, YHOO and AMZN, are showing negative candlestick signals. For example, EBAY displayed a bearish engulfing signal on its weekly chart. Weekly candlestick charts of MSFT, ORCL, WCOM, AMAT, and others show a penultimate weekly hanging man that has not yet been eclipsed. The Russell 2000 Index shows a similar pattern on its weekly candlestick chart, and that should act as a caution against small cap stocks. DELL, CPQ, INTC and others show a previous weekly doji star that has not yet been eclipsed. These are either negative or indecisive signals, warning that there may be trouble ahead. CURRENCIES Last Monday's recommendation of shorting the March Japanese Yen (JYH9) proved profitable. There may be a recovering working against you, but the general trend is in your favor - JYH9 should test the 8756 level. Earlier, we recommended you close your CDH9 short position. The March Canadian Dollar is now at an important juncture and could dramatically reverse 1998's prolonged decline or it could, just as easily, retreat to lower lows. Wait. We had suggested going long the March British Pound (BPH9) and the trend has been working to your benefit. Our new target is 1.6655. COMMODITIES March Orange Juice (JOH9) has drifted, but not yet touched your stop-loss limit. JOH9 is oversold, but may retreat further before rallying. You may wish to close out your position or lower your stop-loss limit. March Coffee (KCH9) - if coffee opens at 116.50 or better, go long on KCH9. If coffee opens below 114.05, go short on KCH9. KCH9 is at a major crossroads and could rally strongly or just as strongly retreat. Short March Lumber (LBH9) - it has peaked and exhibited a strong dark cloud cover on Friday. We look for an interim correction to 323.55 and a potential retreat to 319.63. The recent double top at 335.20 should be your stop-loss limit. Each point is worth $800 per contract. Minimum margin is $1875/contract.